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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Birmingham

T T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Luton

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

46%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

38%

77%

Both score Ø 50%

31%

69%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

20 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

13 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 11. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	7	5	1	+9	26
2	Leeds	14	7	4	3	+9	25
3	Sheffield Weds	14	7	3	4	+8	24
4	Bristol City	13	6	5	2	+3	23
5	QPR	13	7	2	4	+0	23
6	Preston	13	6	4	3	+10	22
7	Swansea	12	6	4	2	+7	22
8	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+5	22
9	Fulham	12	6	3	3	+9	21
10	Charlton	13	6	3	4	+5	21
11	Birmingham	13	6	1	6	-3	19
12	Derby	13	4	6	3	-2	18
13	Cardiff	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Hull	13	4	4	5	-2	16
15	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+1	15
16	Blackburn	13	4	3	6	-3	15
17	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
18	Luton	13	4	2	7	-3	14
19	Wigan	13	4	2	7	-7	14
20	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
21	Middlesbrough	13	2	5	6	-6	11
22	Huddersfield	13	2	4	7	-6	10
23	Stoke	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Barnsley	13	1	5	7	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Fulham	7	4	2	1	+8	14
3	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Charlton	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Birmingham	6	4	1	1	+4	13
7	Wigan	6	4	1	1	+3	13
8	West Brom	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Derby	7	3	3	1	+3	12
10	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+2	11
12	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+2	11
13	QPR	7	3	2	2	+1	11
14	Swansea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
15	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+3	10
16	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+3	9
17	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+1	9
18	Luton	6	2	2	2	+0	8
19	Hull	7	2	2	3	-2	8
20	Middlesbrough	7	2	2	3	-3	8
21	Reading	6	2	0	4	-4	6
22	Barnsley	7	1	3	3	-5	6
23	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-3	5
24	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
2	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+4	14
3	Swansea	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
5	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	QPR	6	4	0	2	-1	12
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	1	3	+4	10
8	Charlton	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Hull	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Fulham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
12	Brentford	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Luton	7	2	0	5	-3	6
14	Blackburn	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Derby	6	1	3	2	-5	6
16	Birmingham	7	2	0	5	-7	6
17	Preston	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	-6	4
21	Millwall	7	0	4	3	-7	4
22	Middlesbrough	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Barnsley	6	0	2	4	-9	2
24	Wigan	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.