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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Stoke

S T T S U

1–2

Full-time

Derby

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 37%

48%

25%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

35%

33%

Both score Ø 45%

39%

50%

Average goals

2,1

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

7 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 6. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	24	14	6	4	+33	48
2	Blackburn	25	14	6	5	+19	48
3	Bournemouth	25	13	8	4	+18	47
4	West Brom	25	12	8	5	+13	44
5	Middlesbrough	26	12	6	8	+7	42
6	Stoke	23	11	5	7	+7	38
7	Coventry	24	10	7	7	+5	37
8	Huddersfield	23	10	6	7	+4	36
9	QPR	23	10	5	8	+4	35
10	Sheffield United	22	10	4	8	+5	34
11	Nott'm Forest	23	9	6	8	+5	33
12	Millwall	24	8	9	7	+0	33
13	Blackpool	26	9	6	11	-4	33
14	Luton	22	8	7	7	+7	31
15	Preston	23	8	7	8	-3	31
16	Swansea	23	8	6	9	-2	30
17	Reading	23	9	3	11	-5	30
18	Bristol City	24	8	6	10	-8	30
19	Derby	24	6	10	8	-3	28
20	Birmingham	24	7	6	11	-11	27
21	Hull	24	6	5	13	-9	23
22	Cardiff	23	6	5	12	-14	23
23	Peterboro	23	5	4	14	-24	19
24	Peterborough	23	5	4	14	-24	19
25	Barnsley	25	2	9	14	-20	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	14	10	2	2	+17	32
2	Coventry	13	8	2	3	+12	26
3	Middlesbrough	14	8	2	4	+8	26
4	West Brom	11	7	4	0	+12	25
5	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+16	24
6	Stoke	12	7	3	2	+8	24
7	Huddersfield	11	7	2	2	+6	23
8	Preston	12	6	4	2	+4	22
9	Bournemouth	11	6	3	2	+10	21
10	QPR	12	6	3	3	+5	21
11	Derby	12	5	5	2	+3	20
12	Blackpool	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+5	19
14	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+3	19
15	Luton	11	5	3	3	+7	18
16	Reading	12	5	3	4	+2	18
17	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
18	Nott'm Forest	12	5	2	5	+0	17
19	Peterboro	11	4	4	3	+3	16
20	Peterborough	11	4	4	3	+3	16
21	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	-2	15
22	Bristol City	12	3	5	4	-2	14
23	Hull	12	3	3	6	-4	12
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	11	2	1	8	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	14	7	5	2	+8	26
2	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+17	24
3	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+1	19
4	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	-3	17
5	Nott'm Forest	11	4	4	3	+5	16
6	Blackburn	11	4	4	3	+2	16
7	Middlesbrough	12	4	4	4	-1	16
8	Cardiff	12	4	4	4	-5	16
9	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-6	16
10	QPR	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Millwall	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	Luton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
14	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Huddersfield	12	3	4	5	-2	13
16	Reading	11	4	0	7	-7	12
17	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Hull	12	3	2	7	-5	11
19	Swansea	11	3	2	6	-7	11
20	Coventry	11	2	5	4	-7	11
21	Preston	11	2	3	6	-7	9
22	Derby	12	1	5	6	-6	8
23	Barnsley	13	0	5	8	-13	5
24	Peterboro	12	1	0	11	-27	3
25	Peterborough	12	1	0	11	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.