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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Man United

U S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 17/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

47%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

40%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 7. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	20	16	2	2	+39	50
2	Chelsea	20	12	6	2	+29	42
3	Liverpool	19	12	5	2	+34	41
4	Arsenal	19	11	2	6	+9	35
5	West Ham	19	9	4	6	+9	31
6	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+2	30
7	Man United	17	8	4	5	+2	28
8	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-1	25
9	Leicester	18	7	4	7	-2	25
10	Brighton	18	5	9	4	-1	24
11	Crystal Palace	19	5	8	6	+0	23
12	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-4	22
13	Southampton	19	4	9	6	-9	21
14	Brentford	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-8	19
16	Leeds	18	3	7	8	-18	16
17	Watford	17	4	1	12	-13	13
18	Burnley	15	1	8	6	-7	11
19	Newcastle	19	1	8	10	-23	11
20	Norwich	19	2	4	13	-34	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+25	25
2	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	10	5	4	1	+15	19
6	Crystal Palace	10	4	5	1	+9	17
7	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Aston Villa	9	4	1	4	+1	13
10	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Southampton	9	2	6	1	+1	12
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
14	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Brentford	9	3	1	5	-1	10
16	Leeds	9	2	4	3	-5	10
17	Newcastle	10	1	5	4	-9	8
18	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
19	Watford	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Chelsea	10	7	2	1	+14	23
3	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+18	20
4	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+6	17
5	Man United	9	4	3	2	+1	15
6	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Brighton	9	2	6	1	+0	12
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-3	10
10	Aston Villa	9	3	0	6	-5	9
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-10	9
13	Tottenham	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-20	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.