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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Porto

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Benfica

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,2

5,5

Scored

2,8

4,3

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+3,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 84%

87%

80%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

73%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

3,1

3,9

Scored

2,5

3,1

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+2,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 2. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	14	2	0	+23	44
2	Porto	15	13	2	0	+30	41
3	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+34	37
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	31
5	Estoril	16	6	7	3	+5	25
6	Portimonense	16	7	3	6	+1	24
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	5	5	+5	23
8	Guimaraes	16	6	5	5	+5	23
9	Maritimo	16	4	5	7	-6	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
11	Boavista	16	3	7	6	-8	16
12	Arouca	16	3	5	8	-15	14
13	Vizela	15	2	7	6	-13	13
14	Santa Clara	16	3	4	9	-18	13
15	Moreirense	15	2	6	7	-9	12
16	Tondela	15	4	0	11	-13	12
17	Famalicao	15	2	5	8	-11	11
18	Belenenses	14	1	5	8	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Benfica	7	5	0	2	+13	15
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Boavista	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	-7	11
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-8	10
10	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
12	Tondela	8	3	0	5	-4	9
13	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	+0	8
14	Estoril	7	1	5	1	+0	8
15	Portimonense	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Vizela	7	1	4	2	-4	7
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+14	20
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+10	19
4	Estoril	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Portimonense	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-4	8
11	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-9	6
12	Maritimo	8	1	2	5	-10	5
13	Arouca	8	0	4	4	-7	4
14	Belenenses	7	0	3	4	-7	3
15	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-8	3
16	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-11	3
18	Santa Clara	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.