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Serie B

Brescia

U S U S U

2–1

Full-time

Perugia

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brescia Perugia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

This season — Serie B · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

31%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

27 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 1

15 Corners 3

18 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brescia 3. · Perugia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lecce	26	13	10	3	+20	49
2	Cremonese	26	14	7	5	+17	49
3	Brescia	26	13	9	4	+15	48
4	Benevento	26	13	7	6	+18	46
5	Pisa	26	12	10	4	+12	46
6	Monza	26	12	8	6	+12	44
7	Ascoli	26	12	6	8	+5	42
8	Frosinone	26	10	11	5	+12	41
9	Perugia	26	10	11	5	+7	41
10	Cittadella	26	11	8	7	+5	41
11	Como	26	8	11	7	-2	35
12	Reggina	26	10	5	11	-10	35
13	Parma	26	7	11	8	+3	32
14	Ternana	26	8	7	11	-5	31
15	Spal	26	6	9	11	-10	27
16	Alessandria	26	6	5	15	-14	23
17	Cosenza	26	5	8	13	-17	23
18	Vicenza	26	4	6	16	-18	18
19	Crotone	26	2	9	15	-18	15
20	Pordenone	26	2	6	18	-32	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monza	13	9	2	2	+13	29
2	Lecce	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Cremonese	13	7	5	1	+10	26
4	Benevento	13	7	3	3	+13	24
5	Pisa	13	6	6	1	+6	24
6	Frosinone	13	5	6	2	+9	21
7	Cittadella	13	6	3	4	+6	21
8	Reggina	13	6	2	5	-2	20
9	Brescia	13	4	6	3	+3	18
10	Como	13	4	6	3	+3	18
11	Parma	13	4	5	4	+5	17
12	Perugia	13	4	5	4	+2	17
13	Cosenza	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Ternana	13	5	1	7	-1	16
15	Ascoli	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	Alessandria	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Spal	13	3	5	5	+2	14
18	Crotone	13	2	6	5	-4	12
19	Vicenza	13	2	4	7	-7	10
20	Pordenone	13	1	4	8	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brescia	13	9	3	1	+12	30
2	Ascoli	13	8	2	3	+7	26
3	Perugia	13	6	6	1	+5	24
4	Cremonese	13	7	2	4	+7	23
5	Pisa	13	6	4	3	+6	22
6	Benevento	13	6	4	3	+5	22
7	Lecce	13	5	6	2	+4	21
8	Frosinone	13	5	5	3	+3	20
9	Cittadella	13	5	5	3	-1	20
10	Como	13	4	5	4	-5	17
11	Monza	13	3	6	4	-1	15
12	Parma	13	3	6	4	-2	15
13	Ternana	13	3	6	4	-4	15
14	Reggina	13	4	3	6	-8	15
15	Spal	13	3	4	6	-12	13
16	Alessandria	13	2	2	9	-9	8
17	Vicenza	13	2	2	9	-11	8
18	Cosenza	13	0	6	7	-15	6
19	Pordenone	13	1	2	10	-19	5
20	Crotone	13	0	3	10	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.