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Serie B

Referee: Antonio Rapuano

Bari

T T U U U

1–2

Full-time

Catanzaro

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Catanzaro

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,90 xG 1,33

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bari 14. · Catanzaro 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	10	4	2	+17	+5.4	34
2	Monza	16	9	4	3	+9	+4.2	31
3	Cesena	16	9	3	4	+7	+3.2	30
4	Venezia	16	8	5	3	+15	+10.0	29
5	Palermo	16	8	5	3	+14	+1.9	29
6	Modena	16	8	5	3	+13	+6.6	29
7	Catanzaro	16	6	7	3	+4	-0.5	25
8	Juve Stabia	16	5	7	4	-2	-1.4	22
9	Padova	16	5	6	5	-2	-1.2	21
10	Empoli	16	5	5	6	+0	+1.4	20
11	Reggiana	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.6	20
12	Avellino	16	5	5	6	-9	-6.1	20
13	Carrarese	16	4	7	5	-2	-4.8	19
14	Bari	16	3	7	6	-11	-2.8	16
15	Sudtirol	16	2	9	5	-4	-3.0	15
16	Virtus Entella	16	3	6	7	-9	-5.2	15
17	Spezia	16	3	5	8	-8	+0.3	14
18	Mantova	16	4	2	10	-11	-2.8	14
19	Sampdoria	16	3	4	9	-8	-0.6	13
20	Pescara	16	1	7	8	-12	-4.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	8	7	0	1	+15	+5.1	21
2	Monza	8	6	1	1	+6	+0.5	19
3	Palermo	9	5	3	1	+11	+4.5	18
4	Modena	8	5	2	1	+9	+1.7	17
5	Juve Stabia	8	4	4	0	+6	+0.8	16
6	Catanzaro	9	4	4	1	+3	+0.9	16
7	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+10	+2.9	14
8	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
9	Cesena	7	4	2	1	+5	+3.8	14
10	Virtus Entella	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.4	13
11	Carrarese	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.5	12
12	Reggiana	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.5	12
13	Bari	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.2	12
14	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
15	Avellino	7	3	2	2	-3	-3.9	11
16	Mantova	8	3	1	4	-4	+2.5	10
17	Sudtirol	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.3	8
18	Pescara	9	1	4	4	-2	-2.4	7
19	Padova	7	1	4	2	-2	-1.3	7
20	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-7	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.4	20
2	Cesena	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.5	16
3	Padova	9	4	2	3	+0	+0.1	14
4	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
5	Monza	8	3	3	2	+3	+3.6	12
6	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
7	Catanzaro	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.4	9
8	Avellino	9	2	3	4	-6	-2.2	9
9	Venezia	8	1	5	2	+0	+4.8	8
10	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
11	Reggiana	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.9	8
12	Sudtirol	8	0	7	1	-3	-1.6	7
13	Carrarese	8	1	4	3	-5	-4.3	7
14	Empoli	7	2	0	5	-6	-1.4	6
15	Juve Stabia	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
16	Mantova	8	1	1	6	-7	-5.2	4
17	Bari	9	0	4	5	-13	-1.6	4
18	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-10	-1.6	3
19	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.1	2
20	Virtus Entella	8	0	2	6	-12	-3.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.