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Serie B

Referee: Andrea Calzavara

Catanzaro

S T U S S

1–0

Full-time

Avellino

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Catanzaro Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 57%

67%

47%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,48 xG 0,74

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Catanzaro 7. · Avellino 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	9	4	2	+16	+5.8	31
2	Monza	16	9	4	3	+9	+4.2	31
3	Venezia	16	8	5	3	+15	+10.0	29
4	Palermo	16	8	5	3	+14	+1.9	29
5	Modena	16	8	5	3	+13	+6.6	29
6	Cesena	15	8	3	4	+6	+0.9	27
7	Catanzaro	15	5	7	3	+3	-1.2	22
8	Juve Stabia	16	5	7	4	-2	-1.4	22
9	Padova	16	5	6	5	-2	-1.2	21
10	Empoli	16	5	5	6	+0	+1.4	20
11	Reggiana	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.6	20
12	Avellino	15	5	5	5	-8	-5.4	20
13	Carrarese	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.8	16
14	Bari	16	3	7	6	-11	-2.8	16
15	Sudtirol	16	2	9	5	-4	-3.0	15
16	Virtus Entella	15	3	6	6	-7	-4.2	15
17	Spezia	16	3	5	8	-8	+0.3	14
18	Mantova	15	4	2	9	-10	-0.4	14
19	Sampdoria	16	3	4	9	-8	-0.6	13
20	Pescara	15	1	7	7	-11	-4.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	8	7	0	1	+15	+5.1	21
2	Monza	8	6	1	1	+6	+0.5	19
3	Palermo	9	5	3	1	+11	+4.5	18
4	Modena	8	5	2	1	+9	+1.7	17
5	Juve Stabia	8	4	4	0	+6	+0.8	16
6	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+10	+2.9	14
7	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
8	Virtus Entella	8	3	4	1	+3	-1.4	13
9	Catanzaro	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.2	13
10	Reggiana	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.5	12
11	Bari	7	3	3	1	+2	-1.2	12
12	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.4	11
13	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
14	Avellino	7	3	2	2	-3	-3.9	11
15	Mantova	8	3	1	4	-4	+2.5	10
16	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
17	Sudtirol	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.3	8
18	Pescara	8	1	4	3	-1	-2.9	7
19	Padova	7	1	4	2	-2	-1.3	7
20	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-7	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.9	17
2	Cesena	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.5	16
3	Padova	9	4	2	3	+0	+0.1	14
4	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
5	Monza	8	3	3	2	+3	+3.6	12
6	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
7	Catanzaro	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.4	9
8	Avellino	8	2	3	3	-5	-1.5	9
9	Venezia	8	1	5	2	+0	+4.8	8
10	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
11	Reggiana	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.9	8
12	Sudtirol	8	0	7	1	-3	-1.6	7
13	Carrarese	8	1	4	3	-5	-4.3	7
14	Empoli	7	2	0	5	-6	-1.4	6
15	Juve Stabia	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
16	Mantova	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.9	4
17	Bari	9	0	4	5	-13	-1.6	4
18	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-10	-1.6	3
19	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.1	2
20	Virtus Entella	7	0	2	5	-10	-2.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.