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Serie B

Referee: Kevin Bonacina

Modena

U T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Monza

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Modena Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 53%

47%

59%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

47%

35%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,91 xG 1,41

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Modena 6. · Monza 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	11	4	2	+18	+5.5	37
2	Monza	17	10	4	3	+12	+7.2	34
3	Venezia	17	9	5	3	+16	+13.4	32
4	Cesena	17	9	4	4	+7	+4.1	31
5	Palermo	17	8	6	3	+14	+2.2	30
6	Modena	17	8	5	4	+12	+3.2	29
7	Catanzaro	17	7	7	3	+5	-0.1	28
8	Empoli	17	6	5	6	+1	+0.9	23
9	Juve Stabia	17	5	8	4	-2	-2.2	23
10	Padova	17	5	7	5	-2	-1.9	22
11	Avellino	17	5	6	6	-9	-6.4	21
12	Reggiana	17	5	5	7	-2	-2.2	20
13	Carrarese	17	4	7	6	-5	-7.8	19
14	Sudtirol	17	2	10	5	-4	-2.9	16
15	Virtus Entella	17	3	7	7	-9	-5.3	16
16	Bari	17	3	7	7	-12	-3.2	16
17	Sampdoria	17	3	5	9	-8	+0.1	14
18	Spezia	17	3	5	9	-9	+0.2	14
19	Mantova	17	4	2	11	-12	-2.2	14
20	Pescara	17	2	7	8	-11	-2.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.5	22
2	Venezia	8	7	0	1	+15	+5.1	21
3	Palermo	9	5	3	1	+11	+4.5	18
4	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+11	+3.1	17
5	Modena	9	5	2	2	+8	-1.7	17
6	Juve Stabia	8	4	4	0	+6	+0.8	16
7	Catanzaro	9	4	4	1	+3	+0.9	16
8	Cesena	8	4	3	1	+5	+4.6	15
9	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
10	Virtus Entella	9	3	5	1	+3	-1.5	14
11	Carrarese	8	3	3	2	+3	-0.5	12
12	Reggiana	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.5	12
13	Bari	8	3	3	2	+1	-1.6	12
14	Avellino	8	3	3	2	-3	-4.2	12
15	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
16	Pescara	10	2	4	4	-1	-0.9	10
17	Mantova	9	3	1	5	-5	+3.0	10
18	Sudtirol	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.3	8
19	Padova	8	1	5	2	-2	-2.0	8
20	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-7	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.4	20
2	Cesena	9	5	1	3	+2	-0.5	16
3	Padova	9	4	2	3	+0	+0.1	14
4	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
5	Palermo	8	3	3	2	+3	-2.2	12
6	Monza	8	3	3	2	+3	+3.6	12
7	Catanzaro	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.0	12
8	Venezia	9	2	5	2	+1	+8.3	11
9	Empoli	8	3	0	5	-5	-1.9	9
10	Avellino	9	2	3	4	-6	-2.2	9
11	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.8	8
12	Sudtirol	9	0	8	1	-3	-1.5	8
13	Reggiana	9	2	2	5	-5	-0.7	8
14	Carrarese	9	1	4	4	-8	-7.3	7
15	Juve Stabia	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.0	7
16	Mantova	8	1	1	6	-7	-5.2	4
17	Bari	9	0	4	5	-13	-1.6	4
18	Sampdoria	9	0	3	6	-9	-2.4	3
19	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-10	-1.6	3
20	Virtus Entella	8	0	2	6	-12	-3.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.