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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man United

S U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

41%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

71%

65%

Both score Ø 71%

76%

65%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,27 xG 1,18

33% Possession 67%

10 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 7. · Newcastle 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+21	+19.3	39
2	Man City	17	12	1	4	+25	+14.3	37
3	Aston Villa	17	11	3	3	+9	-4.6	36
4	Chelsea	17	8	5	4	+12	+5.5	29
5	Liverpool	17	9	2	6	+3	+6.3	29
6	Sunderland	17	7	6	4	+2	-7.8	27
7	Man United	17	7	5	5	+3	+8.6	26
8	Crystal Palace	17	7	5	5	+2	+6.8	26
9	Brighton	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.3	24
10	Everton	17	7	3	7	-2	-4.7	24
11	Newcastle	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.9	23
12	Brentford	17	7	2	8	-1	+1.8	23
13	Fulham	17	7	2	8	-2	-3.8	23
14	Tottenham	17	6	4	7	+3	-6.6	22
15	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-3	+1.2	22
16	Leeds	17	5	4	8	-7	+0.2	19
17	Nott'm Forest	17	5	3	9	-9	-4.0	18
18	West Ham	17	3	4	10	-16	-11.2	13
19	Burnley	17	3	2	12	-15	-19.7	11
20	Wolves	17	0	2	15	-28	-11.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	8	0	1	+19	+11.5	24
2	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+17	+11.1	22
3	Aston Villa	9	7	1	1	+8	-1.2	22
4	Sunderland	8	5	3	0	+8	-0.9	18
5	Brentford	8	5	2	1	+7	+3.7	17
6	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.0	17
7	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.9	16
8	Fulham	9	5	1	3	+5	+1.0	16
9	Bournemouth	9	4	4	1	+5	+6.4	16
10	Liverpool	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.3	16
11	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+5	+7.3	15
12	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
13	Man United	8	4	2	2	+4	+9.3	14
14	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	-0.3	14
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	4	2	-1	+6.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.9	10
17	Tottenham	9	2	2	5	+0	-0.4	8
18	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-3	-7.4	7
19	West Ham	8	2	0	6	-10	-3.8	6
20	Wolves	9	0	1	8	-16	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+4	+8.1	17
2	Crystal Palace	9	5	1	3	+3	+0.2	16
3	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+7	+1.2	15
4	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+3	-6.2	14
5	Aston Villa	8	4	2	2	+1	-3.4	14
6	Man City	8	4	1	3	+6	+2.8	13
7	Liverpool	9	4	1	4	-1	+2.0	13
8	Man United	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.7	12
9	Everton	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.3	10
10	Sunderland	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.9	9
11	Brighton	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.4	8
12	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-7	-6.9	8
13	West Ham	9	1	4	4	-6	-7.4	7
14	Fulham	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
15	Newcastle	8	1	3	4	-3	-1.1	6
16	Bournemouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-5.2	6
17	Brentford	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.8	6
18	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-12	-12.3	4
19	Leeds	8	1	1	6	-12	-7.1	4
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-12	-6.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.