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Serie B

Referee: N Turrini

Padova

S T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Carrarese

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Padova Carrarese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 28%

26%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,63 xG 1,28

36% Possession 64%

13 Shots 22

2 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 9

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Padova 14. · Carrarese 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	23	15	5	3	+26	+21.8	50
2	Monza	23	14	5	4	+17	+10.4	47
3	Frosinone	23	13	7	3	+20	+3.5	46
4	Palermo	24	12	9	3	+20	+8.0	45
5	Cesena	23	11	4	8	+4	+5.8	37
6	Catanzaro	23	9	8	6	+4	-0.6	35
7	Juve Stabia	23	8	11	4	+1	+1.2	35
8	Modena	23	9	7	7	+10	+6.1	34
9	Carrarese	23	7	9	7	-1	-7.7	30
10	Sudtirol	23	6	11	6	+1	-4.8	29
11	Empoli	23	7	7	9	-3	-0.4	28
12	Avellino	23	7	7	9	-9	-11.9	28
13	Sampdoria	24	6	8	10	-6	-0.4	26
14	Padova	23	6	8	9	-6	-4.0	26
15	Mantova	23	6	5	12	-13	-2.5	23
16	Virtus Entella	23	4	10	9	-10	-5.3	22
17	Reggiana	23	5	6	12	-9	-3.0	21
18	Spezia	23	5	6	12	-10	+2.3	21
19	Bari	23	4	8	11	-17	-13.5	20
20	Pescara	23	2	9	12	-19	-5.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	11	10	0	1	+19	+11.7	30
2	Monza	12	9	2	1	+13	+7.4	29
3	Palermo	12	8	3	1	+14	+5.4	27
4	Juve Stabia	12	6	6	0	+8	+1.9	24
5	Frosinone	11	7	2	2	+13	+3.2	23
6	Catanzaro	12	6	5	1	+7	+1.7	23
7	Carrarese	12	5	5	2	+7	+2.2	20
8	Sampdoria	12	5	4	3	+3	+1.8	19
9	Modena	12	5	3	4	+6	-0.6	18
10	Cesena	11	5	3	3	+5	+5.8	18
11	Virtus Entella	11	4	6	1	+4	-0.6	18
12	Avellino	11	5	3	3	-1	-6.4	18
13	Sudtirol	11	5	2	4	+4	-3.3	17
14	Empoli	12	3	7	2	+5	+3.0	16
15	Mantova	12	4	2	6	-7	+0.3	14
16	Reggiana	11	3	4	4	+0	-1.9	13
17	Bari	11	3	4	4	-3	-7.3	13
18	Spezia	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.8	13
19	Padova	11	2	5	4	-2	-4.1	11
20	Pescara	12	2	5	5	-3	-3.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	12	6	5	1	+7	+0.3	23
2	Venezia	12	5	5	2	+7	+10.1	20
3	Cesena	12	6	1	5	-1	+0.0	19
4	Palermo	12	4	6	2	+6	+2.6	18
5	Monza	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.9	18
6	Modena	11	4	4	3	+4	+6.7	16
7	Padova	12	4	3	5	-4	+0.1	15
8	Catanzaro	11	3	3	5	-3	-2.3	12
9	Sudtirol	12	1	9	2	-3	-1.5	12
10	Empoli	11	4	0	7	-8	-3.4	12
11	Juve Stabia	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.7	11
12	Carrarese	11	2	4	5	-8	-9.9	10
13	Avellino	12	2	4	6	-8	-5.5	10
14	Mantova	11	2	3	6	-6	-2.7	9
15	Spezia	11	2	2	7	-5	+3.1	8
16	Reggiana	12	2	2	8	-9	-1.1	8
17	Sampdoria	12	1	4	7	-9	-2.2	7
18	Bari	12	1	4	7	-14	-6.2	7
19	Virtus Entella	12	0	4	8	-14	-4.7	4
20	Pescara	11	0	4	7	-16	-1.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.