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Premiership

Referee: N Walsh

Hearts

S S U S T

1–0

Full-time

Hibernian

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Hibernian

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 52%

64%

40%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

52%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,66 xG 0,41

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

10 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Hibernian 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	25	16	6	3	+27	+12.3	54
2	Rangers	25	14	9	2	+24	+7.2	51
3	Celtic	24	15	3	6	+20	+10.2	48
4	Motherwell	24	11	10	3	+20	+9.3	43
5	Hibernian	25	10	9	6	+11	+2.0	39
6	Falkirk	25	10	6	9	-3	+3.8	36
7	Aberdeen	24	8	4	12	-7	-9.2	28
8	Dundee United	24	5	10	9	-10	-12.2	25
9	St Mirren	24	5	8	11	-13	+1.9	23
10	Dundee	24	6	5	13	-18	-7.2	23
11	Kilmarnock	25	3	8	14	-24	-9.4	17
12	Livingston	25	1	8	16	-27	-8.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	+19	+9.5	28
2	Hearts	12	8	4	0	+16	+5.3	28
3	Rangers	13	8	4	1	+13	+9.6	28
4	Motherwell	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.6	27
5	Hibernian	13	6	5	2	+11	+5.2	23
6	Falkirk	12	4	5	3	+3	+4.9	17
7	St Mirren	13	4	5	4	-2	+4.3	17
8	Aberdeen	12	4	4	4	+4	-4.4	16
9	Dundee	11	5	1	5	-2	-1.0	16
10	Dundee United	12	3	4	5	-5	-6.5	13
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	-8	-1.2	9
12	Livingston	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.0	26
2	Rangers	12	6	5	1	+11	-2.4	23
3	Celtic	12	6	2	4	+1	+0.7	20
4	Falkirk	13	6	1	6	-6	-1.1	19
5	Motherwell	12	3	7	2	+3	-0.4	16
6	Hibernian	12	4	4	4	+0	-3.2	16
7	Dundee United	12	2	6	4	-5	-5.7	12
8	Aberdeen	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
9	Kilmarnock	13	1	5	7	-16	-8.2	8
10	Dundee	13	1	4	8	-16	-6.2	7
11	St Mirren	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.4	6
12	Livingston	12	0	4	8	-18	-5.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.