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Championship

Referee: A Madley

Southampton

U T U S U

2–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 45/44 matches

Win Ø 47%

49%

45%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

62%

52%

Both score Ø 63%

71%

55%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,99 xG 0,98

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 9

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 4. · Middlesbrough 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	46	28	11	7	+52	+35.5	95
2	Ipswich	46	23	15	8	+33	+32.0	84
3	Millwall	46	23	12	11	+13	+7.6	81
4	Southampton	45	22	14	9	+30	+19.4	80
5	Middlesbrough	44	20	14	10	+18	+28.3	74
6	Hull	45	21	11	13	+9	-20.8	74
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	+4	-6.5	71
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	+8	+0.9	69
9	Norwich	46	19	8	19	+7	-3.3	65
10	Birmingham	46	17	13	16	+1	+14.3	64
11	Swansea	46	18	10	18	-2	-5.6	64
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	+0	-7.7	62
13	Sheffield United	46	18	6	22	+0	+13.8	60
14	Preston	46	15	15	16	-7	-16.3	60
15	QPR	46	16	10	20	-12	-2.8	58
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	-12	+2.0	57
17	Stoke	46	15	10	21	-5	-12.7	55
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	-15	-4.1	55
19	West Brom	46	13	14	19	-10	+11.2	53
20	Charlton	46	13	14	19	-14	-16.2	53
21	Leicester	46	12	16	18	-10	-10.6	52
22	Blackburn	46	13	13	20	-14	+0.1	52
23	Oxford	46	11	14	21	-14	-7.1	47
24	Sheffield Weds	46	2	12	32	-60	-51.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	23	17	4	2	+32	+25.6	55
2	Ipswich	23	14	8	1	+26	+26.5	50
3	Birmingham	23	12	8	3	+17	+20.1	44
4	Southampton	22	12	7	3	+19	+14.3	43
5	Millwall	23	13	3	7	+8	+7.8	42
6	Middlesbrough	23	11	7	5	+12	+16.7	40
7	Swansea	23	11	6	6	+7	-1.3	39
8	Hull	22	11	6	5	+6	-3.9	39
9	Wrexham	23	10	7	6	+4	+6.9	37
10	Watford	23	10	7	6	+3	+6.3	37
11	Derby	23	10	6	7	+4	+4.7	36
12	West Brom	23	8	10	5	+3	+13.3	34
13	Stoke	23	9	6	8	+6	+2.9	33
14	QPR	23	10	3	10	+3	+8.2	33
15	Sheffield United	23	9	4	10	+5	+15.0	31
16	Bristol City	23	9	4	10	+2	-3.4	31
17	Preston	23	8	7	8	-2	-3.9	31
18	Charlton	23	9	4	10	-3	-2.1	31
19	Portsmouth	23	8	6	9	+2	+6.5	30
20	Norwich	23	9	3	11	-1	+0.7	30
21	Oxford	23	7	8	8	-3	+3.6	29
22	Leicester	23	7	7	9	-3	-0.1	28
23	Blackburn	23	4	9	10	-8	+4.1	21
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	7	15	-30	-22.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	23	11	7	5	+20	+10.0	40
2	Millwall	23	10	9	4	+5	-0.1	39
3	Southampton	23	10	7	6	+11	+5.1	37
4	Norwich	23	10	5	8	+8	-4.0	35
5	Hull	23	10	5	8	+3	-17.0	35
6	Ipswich	23	9	7	7	+7	+5.5	34
7	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+6	+11.6	34
8	Wrexham	23	9	7	7	+0	-13.4	34
9	Derby	23	10	3	10	+4	-3.8	33
10	Bristol City	23	8	7	8	-2	-4.3	31
11	Blackburn	23	9	4	10	-6	-4.0	31
12	Sheffield United	23	9	2	12	-5	-1.1	29
13	Preston	23	7	8	8	-5	-12.4	29
14	Swansea	23	7	4	12	-9	-4.3	25
15	QPR	23	6	7	10	-15	-11.0	25
16	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	-17	-10.6	25
17	Leicester	23	5	9	9	-7	-10.6	24
18	Charlton	23	4	10	9	-11	-14.1	22
19	Stoke	23	6	4	13	-11	-15.6	22
20	Watford	23	4	8	11	-15	-4.3	20
21	Birmingham	23	5	5	13	-16	-5.7	20
22	West Brom	23	5	4	14	-13	-2.1	19
23	Oxford	23	4	6	13	-11	-10.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	5	17	-30	-28.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.