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La Liga

Referee: J Guzman

Osasuna

U T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 43%

31%

54%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

49%

Both score Ø 53%

54%

51%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,30 xG 1,56

59% Possession 41%

23 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

6 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Osasuna 11. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	35	30	1	4	+60	+41.1	91
2	Real Madrid	35	24	5	6	+37	+35.0	77
3	Villarreal	35	21	6	8	+25	+11.1	69
4	Ath Madrid	35	19	6	10	+20	+12.2	63
5	Betis	36	14	15	7	+12	+10.3	57
6	Celta	36	13	11	12	+4	+2.0	50
7	Getafe	35	13	6	16	-8	-11.9	45
8	Sociedad	35	11	11	13	-1	-0.8	44
9	Ath Bilbao	35	13	5	17	-11	+7.2	44
10	Vallecano	35	10	13	12	-6	+3.0	43
11	Osasuna	35	11	9	15	-3	-5.1	42
12	Valencia	35	11	9	15	-12	+2.5	42
13	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	-13	-16.9	40
14	Elche	36	9	12	15	-9	-20.8	39
15	Mallorca	35	10	9	16	-9	-18.5	39
16	Levante	36	10	9	17	-15	-10.9	39
17	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-15	-6.0	39
18	Girona	35	9	12	14	-15	-10.5	39
19	Alaves	35	9	10	16	-13	-2.7	37
20	Oviedo	35	6	11	18	-28	-20.4	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	18	0	0	+45	+26.5	54
2	Villarreal	17	14	1	2	+26	+10.8	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
4	Ath Madrid	18	14	1	3	+21	+19.8	43
5	Betis	18	9	6	3	+14	+10.7	33
6	Elche	18	8	8	2	+10	-2.7	32
7	Osasuna	17	9	5	3	+9	+7.9	32
8	Mallorca	18	8	6	4	+7	+0.9	30
9	Sociedad	18	8	5	5	+7	+7.7	29
10	Ath Bilbao	18	9	2	7	+1	+10.5	29
11	Vallecano	18	6	10	2	+7	+10.2	28
12	Valencia	17	7	5	5	+2	+9.5	26
13	Sevilla	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.4	25
14	Alaves	17	6	6	5	+0	+2.1	24
15	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	-0.1	23
16	Espanol	17	6	4	7	-5	-0.1	22
17	Girona	17	6	4	7	-6	-6.1	22
18	Getafe	17	6	3	8	-1	-3.2	21
19	Celta	18	5	5	8	+0	+4.7	20
20	Oviedo	18	4	7	7	-8	-10.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	1	4	+15	+14.6	37
2	Real Madrid	18	10	4	4	+12	+11.9	34
3	Celta	18	8	6	4	+4	-2.7	30
4	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.3	26
5	Betis	18	5	9	4	-2	-0.4	24
6	Getafe	18	7	3	8	-7	-8.7	24
7	Ath Madrid	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.6	20
8	Girona	18	3	8	7	-9	-4.4	17
9	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-10	-5.9	17
10	Levante	18	4	4	10	-11	-10.9	16
11	Valencia	18	4	4	10	-14	-7.0	16
12	Sociedad	17	3	6	8	-8	-8.5	15
13	Ath Bilbao	17	4	3	10	-12	-3.3	15
14	Sevilla	17	4	3	10	-13	-15.4	15
15	Vallecano	17	4	3	10	-13	-7.1	15
16	Alaves	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.8	13
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	17	2	4	11	-20	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	17	2	3	12	-16	-19.5	9
20	Elche	18	1	4	13	-19	-18.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.