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Premier League
Referee: K Friend
Brighton
T S U S U
1–1
Full-time
Chelsea
U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
This season — Premier League · 20/22 matches
Win Ø 43%
30%
55%
Points per game
1,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
25%
55%
Both score Ø 53%
55%
50%
Average goals
2,1
2,8
Scored
1,1
2,0
Conceded
1,1
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%
10 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 7
1 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 5
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brighton 9. · Chelsea 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 22 18 2 2 +41 56
2 Liverpool 21 13 6 2 +37 45
3 Chelsea 22 12 7 3 +28 43
4 West Ham 22 11 4 7 +11 37
5 Arsenal 20 11 2 7 +8 35
6 Tottenham 18 10 3 5 +3 33
7 Man United 20 9 5 6 +3 32
8 Wolves 20 9 4 7 +2 31
9 Brighton 20 6 10 4 +0 28
10 Leicester 18 7 4 7 -2 25
11 Crystal Palace 21 5 9 7 -1 24
12 Southampton 21 5 9 7 -8 24
13 Aston Villa 20 7 2 11 -5 23
14 Brentford 21 6 5 10 -9 23
15 Leeds 20 5 7 8 -15 22
16 Everton 19 5 4 10 -10 19
17 Watford 19 4 2 13 -14 14
18 Norwich 21 3 4 14 -35 13
19 Newcastle 20 1 9 10 -23 12
20 Burnley 17 1 8 8 -11 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brighton Chelsea
28′
H. Ziyech 0–1
N. Kanté
Half-time 0–1
59′
🟨 Marcos Alonso
1–1 A. Webster
A. Mac Allister
60′
N. Maupay 🔁
↦ P. Groß
62′
L. Trossard 🔁
↦ D. Welbeck
62′
S. March 🔁
↦ T. Lamptey
76′
Dan Burn 🟨
80′
80′
🔁 T. Werner
↦ H. Ziyech
80′
🔁 M. Kovačić
↦ Jorginho
80′
🔁 K. Havertz
↦ R. Lukaku
81′
🟨 Antonio Rüdiger
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Brighton

4-1-4-1
1 Robert Sánchez G
4 A. Webster D
34 J. Veltman D
33 D. Burn D
3 Cucurella D
2 T. Lamptey M
13 P. Groß M
15 J. Moder F
17 S. Alzate M
10 A. Mac Allister M
18 D. Welbeck M
Bench (9)
9 N. Maupay
11 L. Trossard
20 S. March
16 K. Scherpen
42 M. Leonard
58 E. Ferguson
28 H. Roberts
25 M. Caicedo
38 T. McGill

Coach: G. Potter

Chelsea

4-2-2-2
1 Kepa G
6 Thiago Silva D
28 Azpilicueta D
3 Marcos Alonso D
2 A. Rüdiger D
5 Jorginho M
7 N. Kanté M
22 H. Ziyech M
19 M. Mount M
9 R. Lukaku F
20 C. Hudson-Odoi F
Bench (9)
11 T. Werner
8 M. Kovačić
29 K. Havertz
31 M. Sarr
13 M. Bettinelli
17 Saúl
10 C. Pulisic
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
75 L. Hall

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,81
U ✓
3,72
B
1,77
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,10
U2,5 ✓
1,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

K Friend · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.