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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Derby

U U T T S

0–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Championship · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 13. · Middlesbrough 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Luton	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	QPR	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Blackburn	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Cardiff	4	1	3	0	+2	6
9	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Barnsley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Derby	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Peterborough	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Peterboro	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-3	4
19	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
20	Hull	3	1	0	2	-1	3
21	Preston	4	1	0	3	-4	3
22	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Blackpool	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-5	1
25	Nott'm Forest	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Luton	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Peterboro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Peterborough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Reading	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Preston	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	-3	3
13	QPR	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Blackpool	2	0	0	2	-3	0
25	Hull	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Hull	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Derby	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Barnsley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Sheffield United	2	0	1	1	-4	1
21	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Peterboro	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.