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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

West Ham

S S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

This season — Premier League · 23/21 matches

Win Ø 34%

48%

19%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

61%

52%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

52%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

1 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Ham 5. · Watford 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	23	18	3	2	+41	57
2	Liverpool	22	14	6	2	+39	48
3	Chelsea	24	13	8	3	+30	47
4	Man United	22	11	5	6	+6	38
5	West Ham	23	11	4	8	+10	37
6	Arsenal	21	11	3	7	+8	36
7	Tottenham	20	11	3	6	+2	36
8	Wolves	21	10	4	7	+3	34
9	Brighton	22	6	12	4	+0	30
10	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-3	26
11	Aston Villa	21	8	2	11	-4	26
12	Southampton	22	5	10	7	-8	25
13	Crystal Palace	22	5	9	8	-3	24
14	Brentford	23	6	5	12	-12	23
15	Leeds	21	5	7	9	-16	22
16	Everton	20	5	4	11	-11	19
17	Norwich	22	4	4	14	-32	16
18	Watford	21	4	3	14	-17	15
19	Newcastle	21	2	9	10	-22	15
20	Burnley	19	1	10	8	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	28
2	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+19	24
3	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
4	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
6	Man United	11	6	1	4	+3	19
7	Crystal Palace	12	4	5	3	+6	17
8	West Ham	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
11	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Everton	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Brentford	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
17	Newcastle	11	1	6	4	-9	9
18	Burnley	8	1	5	2	+0	8
19	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
20	Watford	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+20	24
3	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Wolves	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Man United	11	5	4	2	+3	19
7	Brighton	11	3	7	1	+1	16
8	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Aston Villa	11	4	0	7	-5	12
11	Brentford	11	2	4	5	-9	10
12	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-12	9
14	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Watford	10	2	2	6	-3	8
16	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-9	7
18	Everton	10	1	3	6	-9	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-13	6
20	Burnley	11	0	5	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.