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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Derby

U S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Hull

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

27%

30%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

40%

27%

Both score Ø 42%

53%

30%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Hull 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	29	18	7	4	+49	61
2	Blackburn	31	16	8	7	+18	56
3	Bournemouth	29	15	8	6	+20	53
4	West Brom	31	14	9	8	+14	51
5	QPR	29	15	6	8	+12	51
6	Huddersfield	29	13	9	7	+8	48
7	Middlesbrough	29	14	6	9	+8	48
8	Sheffield United	28	14	5	9	+10	47
9	Coventry	29	13	7	9	+10	46
10	Luton	28	12	8	8	+10	44
11	Preston	31	11	11	9	+0	44
12	Blackpool	30	12	7	11	+0	43
13	Nott'm Forest	28	12	6	10	+8	42
14	Stoke	29	12	6	11	+5	42
15	Swansea	29	10	8	11	-3	38
16	Millwall	29	9	10	10	-1	37
17	Bristol City	31	10	7	14	-14	37
18	Derby	30	8	12	10	-3	36
19	Birmingham	32	8	10	14	-16	34
20	Hull	30	9	5	16	-8	32
21	Reading	29	9	4	16	-20	31
22	Cardiff	29	8	6	15	-17	30
23	Peterboro	27	5	5	17	-32	20
24	Peterborough	27	5	5	17	-32	20
25	Barnsley	29	2	9	18	-26	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	West Brom	15	9	5	1	+16	32
3	Middlesbrough	16	10	2	4	+10	32
4	Fulham	15	9	4	2	+24	31
5	Coventry	15	9	2	4	+12	29
6	Blackpool	17	9	2	6	+2	29
7	QPR	15	8	4	3	+10	28
8	Huddersfield	14	8	4	2	+8	28
9	Luton	14	7	4	3	+9	25
10	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+6	25
11	Preston	15	6	7	2	+4	25
12	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+12	24
13	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+5	24
14	Derby	14	6	6	2	+5	24
15	Millwall	14	6	5	3	+4	23
16	Nott'm Forest	15	7	2	6	+3	23
17	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+10	20
18	Bristol City	15	5	5	5	-1	20
19	Birmingham	16	5	5	6	-3	20
20	Reading	16	5	4	7	-8	19
21	Hull	16	5	3	8	-3	18
22	Peterboro	13	4	4	5	-2	16
23	Peterborough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
24	Cardiff	13	3	1	9	-9	10
25	Barnsley	14	2	4	8	-9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+25	30
2	Bournemouth	16	8	5	3	+8	29
3	Sheffield United	16	8	3	5	+0	27
4	QPR	14	7	2	5	+2	23
5	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	+0	20
6	Blackburn	15	5	5	5	+0	20
7	Cardiff	16	5	5	6	-8	20
8	Nott'm Forest	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Luton	14	5	4	5	+1	19
10	West Brom	16	5	4	7	-2	19
11	Preston	16	5	4	7	-4	19
12	Stoke	14	5	3	6	+0	18
13	Coventry	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	Bristol City	16	5	2	9	-13	17
15	Middlesbrough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
16	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-2	14
17	Millwall	15	3	5	7	-5	14
18	Hull	14	4	2	8	-5	14
19	Birmingham	16	3	5	8	-13	14
20	Swansea	14	3	4	7	-9	13
21	Derby	16	2	6	8	-8	12
22	Reading	13	4	0	9	-12	12
23	Barnsley	15	0	5	10	-17	5
24	Peterboro	14	1	1	12	-30	4
25	Peterborough	14	1	1	12	-30	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.