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League Cup

Referee: A Backhouse

Tranmere

1–2

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tranmere Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

29% Possession 71%

5 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 9

4 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Newport County	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Derby	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Stevenage	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
9	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Morecambe	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
40	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
41	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
42	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
52	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
2	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Morecambe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
49	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
50	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
51	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tranmere Newcastle

1–0 E. Nevitt ⚽

J. Dacres-Cogley

21′

39′

🔁 K. Trippier

↦ E. Krafth

40′

⚽ J. Lascelles 1–1

Half-time 1–1

46′

🔁 J. Lewis

↦ M. Targett

Kane Hemmings 🟨

49′

52′

⚽ C. Wood 1–2

K. Trippier

J. Hawkes 🔁

↦ J. Nolan

58′

P. Lewis 🔁

↦ K. Jameson

70′

🔁 S. Botman

↦ J. Lascelles

70′

🔁 Joelinton

↦ J. Willock

85′

🔁 Bruno Guimarães

↦ E. Anderson

Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Tranmere

5-3-2

23 M. Hewelt G

2 J. Dacres-Cogley D

19 N. Byrne D

14 J. Turnbull D

18 K. Jameson D

3 E. Bristow D

4 L. O'Connor M

16 J. Nolan M

R. McAlear M

20 E. Nevitt F

10 K. Hemmings F

Bench (9)

11 J. Hawkes

22 P. Lewis

29 M. Fisher

17 R. Hughes

15 B. Hockenhall

6 C. Merrie

32 S. Taylor

30 A. Lomax

1 R. Doohan

Coach: M. Mellon

Newcastle

4-3-3

K. Darlow G

17 E. Krafth D

6 J. Lascelles D

3 P. Dummett D

M. Targett D

J. Willock M

S. Longstaff M

E. Anderson M

11 M. Ritchie F

C. Wood F

J. Murphy F

Bench (9)

2 K. Trippier

12 J. Lewis

4 S. Botman

7 Joelinton

39 Bruno Guimarães

24 M. Almirón

18 F. Fernández

19 Javi Manquillo

29 M. Gillespie

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

9. Aug LC 4 years ago

Referee

A Backhouse · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,2 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

21,5 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

Tranmere

Newcastle

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee