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League Cup

Referee: D Bond

Newcastle

U S S T U

1–0

Full-time

AFC Wimbledon

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle AFC Wimbledon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

78% Possession 22%

18 Shots 2

4 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 53. · AFC Wimbledon 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Preston	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Wycombe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+4	4
15	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
21	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
22	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
23	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
24	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
25	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
27	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
28	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
47	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
49	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
60	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
62	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
38	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
39	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
40	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
41	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
35	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
64	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.