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League Cup

Referee: Simon Mather

Tranmere

T T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Burton Albion

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tranmere Burton Albion

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,3

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 6

6 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
6	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
7	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
9	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
13	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
14	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
15	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
16	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
17	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
19	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
20	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
21	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
22	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
23	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
24	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
25	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
26	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
27	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
28	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
29	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
30	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
31	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
32	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
33	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
34	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
35	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
36	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
37	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
38	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
39	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
40	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
41	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
42	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
43	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
44	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
45	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
46	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
47	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
48	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
49	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
50	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
51	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
52	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
53	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
54	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
55	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
56	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
58	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
59	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
60	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
61	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
62	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
63	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
64	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
65	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
66	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
67	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
68	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
69	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
70	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
7	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
8	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
10	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
11	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
12	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
13	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
14	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
15	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
17	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
18	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
19	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
20	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
21	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
22	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
23	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
24	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
25	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
26	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
27	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
28	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
29	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
30	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
31	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
32	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
33	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
34	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
35	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
2	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
3	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
16	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
17	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
18	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
19	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
20	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
21	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
22	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
23	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
24	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
25	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
26	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
27	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
28	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
29	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
30	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
31	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
32	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
33	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
34	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
35	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
36	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.