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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Arsenal

S U T T T

5–0

Full-time

Crystal Palace

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 43%

60%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

55%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,21 xG 0,35

61% Possession 39%

21 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

5 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Crystal Palace 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	13	6	1	+25	+22.1	45
2	Man City	20	13	4	3	+25	+21.2	43
3	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	+16	+10.9	43
4	Arsenal	20	12	4	4	+17	+20.5	40
5	Tottenham	21	12	4	5	+13	+0.3	40
6	West Ham	20	10	4	6	+3	-7.8	34
7	Man United	21	10	2	9	-5	-4.2	32
8	Brighton	20	8	7	5	+5	+5.5	31
9	Chelsea	21	9	4	8	+4	+11.9	31
10	Newcastle	21	9	2	10	+9	+4.1	29
11	Wolves	20	8	4	8	-1	-6.2	28
12	Everton	21	8	3	10	-4	+2.2	27
13	Bournemouth	19	7	4	8	-7	-4.2	25
14	Fulham	21	7	3	11	-8	-11.7	24
15	Crystal Palace	20	5	6	9	-7	-4.0	21
16	Nott'm Forest	20	5	5	10	-11	-6.9	20
17	Brentford	19	5	4	10	-5	+8.3	19
18	Luton	20	4	4	12	-14	-20.1	16
19	Burnley	21	3	3	15	-21	-17.9	12
20	Sheffield United	20	2	3	15	-34	-23.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	10	9	1	0	+21	+12.3	28
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+18	+19.8	26
3	Newcastle	11	8	0	3	+15	+12.2	24
4	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.6	23
5	Man City	9	6	3	0	+15	+7.5	21
6	Tottenham	10	7	0	3	+7	+1.9	21
7	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+8	+6.2	19
8	Man United	11	6	1	4	-3	+1.7	19
9	Fulham	10	6	0	4	+7	+3.2	18
10	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+7	-4.0	18
11	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+4	+10.4	18
12	Wolves	10	5	3	2	+2	-1.6	18
13	Brentford	10	3	3	4	-1	+4.7	12
14	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.1	12
15	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.3	12
16	Everton	11	3	2	6	-1	+5.4	11
17	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-3	-1.1	9
18	Luton	10	2	2	6	-4	-3.7	8
19	Sheffield United	10	2	1	7	-14	-9.3	7
20	Burnley	11	1	1	9	-14	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	7	1	3	+10	+13.7	22
2	Liverpool	10	5	4	1	+7	+2.3	19
3	Tottenham	11	5	4	2	+6	-1.6	19
4	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	+5	+6.9	17
5	Everton	10	5	1	4	-3	-3.2	16
6	West Ham	10	5	1	4	-4	-3.8	16
7	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	-5	-1.4	15
8	Chelsea	10	4	1	5	+0	+1.4	13
9	Man United	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.8	13
10	Bournemouth	10	4	1	5	-6	-2.9	13
11	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-3	-0.7	12
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-4	-2.9	12
13	Wolves	10	3	1	6	-3	-4.7	10
14	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-7	-12.2	8
15	Luton	10	2	2	6	-10	-16.4	8
16	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-10	-6.8	8
17	Brentford	9	2	1	6	-4	+3.6	7
18	Fulham	11	1	3	7	-15	-14.9	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	2	7	-6	-8.1	5
20	Sheffield United	10	0	2	8	-20	-14.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.