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Copa del Rey

Referee: G Cuadra

CF Talavera

T S S

2–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

CF Talavera Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

35% Possession 65%

16 Shots 25

5 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+9	–	9
2	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
3	La Coruna	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.6	9
4	Santander	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
5	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
6	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
7	Cultural Leonesa	3	3	0	0	+5	–	9
8	Albacete	3	2	1	0	+4	–	7
9	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
10	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
11	Betis	2	2	0	0	+9	–	6
12	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.4	6
13	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
14	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
15	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
16	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
17	CF Talavera	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
18	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.1	6
19	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+3	–	6
20	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
21	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
22	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
23	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
24	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
25	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
26	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
27	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
28	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	–	6
29	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
30	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
31	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	–	4
32	Real Murcia	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
33	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
34	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
35	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
36	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
37	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	–	4
38	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	–	4
39	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.1	3
40	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
41	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
42	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
43	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
44	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
45	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
46	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
47	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
48	Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
49	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
50	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
51	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
52	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	–	3
53	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
54	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
55	Cartagena	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
56	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
57	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
58	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
59	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
60	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
61	Sabadell	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
62	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
63	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
64	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	–	3
65	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
66	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
67	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
68	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
69	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
70	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
71	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
72	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
73	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
74	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
75	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
76	Mirandes	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
77	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
78	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
79	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
80	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
81	Pontevedra	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
82	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
83	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
84	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
85	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
86	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
87	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
88	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
89	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
90	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
91	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
92	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
93	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
94	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
95	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
96	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
97	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
98	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
99	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
100	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
101	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
102	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
103	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
104	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
105	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
106	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
107	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
108	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
109	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
110	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
111	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
112	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0
113	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
114	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
115	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
116	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
117	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
118	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
119	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
120	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
121	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
122	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	–	0
123	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0
124	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
2	Cultural Leonesa	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
3	Atlético Baleares	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
4	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
5	Real Murcia	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
6	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
7	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
8	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
9	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
12	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
13	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
14	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
18	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
19	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
21	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
22	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
23	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
24	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
25	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
26	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
27	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
28	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
29	Albacete	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
36	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
37	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
38	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
39	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	–	1
40	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	–	1
41	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
46	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
51	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
53	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
60	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Sp Gijon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Sabadell	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Pontevedra	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
76	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
77	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
78	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
79	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
80	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
81	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
82	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
83	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
84	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+9	–	9
2	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
3	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
4	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
5	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
6	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
7	Betis	2	2	0	0	+9	–	6
8	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.4	6
9	La Coruna	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
10	Eibar	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
11	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
12	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.1	6
15	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
16	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
17	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
18	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
19	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
20	Celta	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.1	5
21	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	+5	–	4
22	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
23	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
24	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
25	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
26	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
27	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
28	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
29	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
30	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
31	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
32	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
33	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
34	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
35	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
36	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
38	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
39	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
40	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
41	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
42	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
43	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
44	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
45	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
57	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
76	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
77	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
78	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.