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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Girona
U S T S U
1–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 46%
15%
77%
Points per game
0,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
54%
69%
Both score Ø 58%
62%
54%
Average goals
2,8
3,1
Scored
0,9
2,2
Conceded
1,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,79 xG 2,53
40% Possession 60%
10 Shots 25
4 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 9
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Girona 18. · Real Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 14 11 1 2 +23 +12.2 34
2 Villarreal 14 10 2 2 +16 +8.4 32
3 Real Madrid 13 10 2 1 +16 +16.6 32
4 Ath Madrid 14 9 4 1 +16 +11.9 31
5 Betis 14 6 6 2 +8 +6.3 24
6 Espanol 14 7 3 4 +2 +5.2 24
7 Getafe 14 6 2 6 -2 -3.5 20
8 Ath Bilbao 14 6 2 6 -3 +5.6 20
9 Sociedad 14 4 4 6 -2 +0.7 16
10 Elche 14 3 7 4 -2 -5.2 16
11 Vallecano 13 4 4 5 -2 +1.2 16
12 Celta 14 3 7 4 -3 -1.8 16
13 Sevilla 14 5 1 8 -4 -10.3 16
14 Alaves 14 4 3 7 -3 +1.1 15
15 Mallorca 14 3 4 7 -7 -10.8 13
16 Valencia 13 3 4 6 -9 -4.9 13
17 Osasuna 14 3 3 8 -6 -3.7 12
18 Girona 13 2 5 6 -13 -9.4 11
19 Levante 14 2 3 9 -10 -5.4 9
20 Oviedo 14 2 3 9 -15 -14.4 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Girona Real Madrid
Paulo Gazzaniga 🟨
42′
42′
ℹ️ Kylian Mbappé
VAR: Goal cancelled
1–0 A. Ounahi
V. Tsygankov
45′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Guler
Azzedine Ounahi 🟨
59′
67′
K. Mbappe 1–1
A. Frances 🔁
↦ H. Rincon
72′
Y. Asprilla 🔁
↦ V. Tsygankov
72′
J. Roca 🔁
↦ B. Gil
72′
72′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ A. Tchouameni
Vladyslav Vanat 🟨
74′
L. Kourouma 🔁
↦ V. Vanat
83′
A. Ruiz 🔁
↦ A. Ounahi
83′
90′
🔁 G. Garcia
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
90′
🔁 A. Carreras
↦ F. Garcia
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Girona

4-2-3-1
13 P. Gazzaniga G
2 H. Rincon D
4 A. Martinez D
12 Vitor Reis D
24 A. Moreno D
23 I. Martin M
20 A. Witsel M
15 V. Tsygankov M
18 A. Ounahi M
21 B. Gil M
19 V. Vanat F
Bench (9)
1 D. Livakovic
43 A. Andreev
16 A. Frances
28 G. Jordana
10 Y. Asprilla
29 L. Kourouma
3 J. Roca
44 P. Ba
9 A. Ruiz

Coach: Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
3 Eder Militao D
22 A. Rudiger D
20 F. Garcia D
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouameni M
5 J. Bellingham M
15 A. Guler F
10 K. Mbappe F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (11)
13 A. Lunin
43 S. Mestre
6 E. Camavinga
9 Endrick
11 Rodrygo
16 G. Garcia
18 A. Carreras
19 D. Ceballos
21 B. Diaz
23 F. Mendy
30 F. Mastantuono

Coach: Xabier Alonso Olano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
6,60
U ✓
5,05
B
1,40
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,39
U2,5 ✓
2,87
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.