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La Liga

Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura

Alaves

T T T S S

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 51%

33%

69%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

63%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

1,9

2,9

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,36 xG 1,83

52% Possession 48%

6 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 12. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	1	2	+29	+17.2	43
2	Real Madrid	16	11	3	2	+17	+20.6	36
3	Villarreal	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.8	35
4	Ath Madrid	17	10	4	3	+14	+8.7	34
5	Espanol	16	9	3	4	+4	+6.5	30
6	Betis	15	6	6	3	+6	+6.0	24
7	Ath Bilbao	17	7	2	8	-7	+5.0	23
8	Celta	16	5	7	4	+1	-2.9	22
9	Sevilla	16	6	2	8	+0	-9.8	20
10	Getafe	16	6	2	8	-5	-4.1	20
11	Elche	16	4	7	5	-1	-6.3	19
12	Alaves	15	5	3	7	-2	+1.3	18
13	Vallecano	15	4	5	6	-3	+1.1	17
14	Mallorca	16	4	5	7	-5	-9.2	17
15	Sociedad	16	4	4	8	-4	-0.0	16
16	Osasuna	16	4	3	9	-6	-5.1	15
17	Valencia	16	3	6	7	-10	-4.8	15
18	Girona	16	3	6	7	-15	-11.8	15
19	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-19	-15.2	10
20	Levante	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+23	+14.6	27
2	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+15	+11.9	25
3	Villarreal	8	7	1	0	+16	+7.3	22
4	Espanol	9	6	1	2	+3	+3.2	19
5	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+9	+10.9	18
6	Elche	8	4	4	0	+7	+1.5	16
7	Ath Bilbao	9	5	1	3	+0	+6.5	16
8	Alaves	8	4	2	2	+3	+2.7	14
9	Betis	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.8	13
10	Osasuna	7	4	1	2	+3	+1.2	13
11	Mallorca	8	3	4	1	+1	-1.3	13
12	Valencia	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.4	12
13	Getafe	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.0	11
14	Sevilla	8	3	1	4	+2	-0.7	10
15	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	-1	+2.2	10
16	Girona	8	2	3	3	-6	-7.0	9
17	Celta	9	1	5	3	-3	-0.1	8
18	Vallecano	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.0	7
19	Oviedo	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.1	6
20	Levante	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	+9.8	18
2	Barcelona	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.6	16
3	Celta	7	4	2	1	+4	-2.8	14
4	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
5	Betis	7	2	5	0	+3	+2.2	11
6	Espanol	7	3	2	2	+1	+3.3	11
7	Sevilla	8	3	1	4	-2	-9.1	10
8	Vallecano	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.0	10
9	Ath Madrid	8	2	3	3	-1	-3.2	9
10	Getafe	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.1	9
11	Levante	9	2	2	5	-2	+0.6	8
12	Ath Bilbao	8	2	1	5	-7	-1.5	7
13	Sociedad	8	1	3	4	-3	-2.2	6
14	Girona	8	1	3	4	-9	-4.8	6
15	Alaves	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.5	4
16	Mallorca	8	1	1	6	-6	-7.9	4
17	Oviedo	8	1	1	6	-11	-7.1	4
18	Elche	8	0	3	5	-8	-7.7	3
19	Valencia	8	0	3	5	-13	-9.3	3
20	Osasuna	9	0	2	7	-9	-6.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.