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Coppa Italia

Referee: A Colombo

Atalanta

T T U S S

5–2

Full-time

Spezia

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,7

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

56% Possession 44%

18 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Cremonese	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Spezia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Bari	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Monza	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Parma	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Modena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Palermo	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	-3	3
22	Napoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Perugia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Benevento	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Reggina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
39	Verona	1	0	0	1	-3	0
40	Padova	1	0	0	1	-3	0
41	Como	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torino	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Spezia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Modena	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Bari	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Palermo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Monza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Parma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Napoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Verona	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Bari	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Brescia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
4	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Parma	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Monza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	-3	3
10	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Reggiana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Perugia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Benevento	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Reggina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Modena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Padova	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
26	Como	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.