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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Spezia

S U T T T

1–3

Full-time

Atalanta

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 35%

26%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

57%

63%

Both score Ø 62%

57%

66%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

5 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	36	23	9	4	+47	78
2	Milan	35	23	8	4	+31	77
3	Napoli	36	22	7	7	+37	73
4	Juventus	36	20	9	7	+22	69
5	Lazio	36	18	8	10	+19	62
6	Roma	35	17	8	10	+15	59
7	Atalanta	35	15	11	9	+18	56
8	Fiorentina	35	17	5	13	+7	56
9	Verona	35	14	10	11	+9	52
10	Torino	36	12	11	13	+7	47
11	Sassuolo	36	12	11	13	-1	47
12	Udinese	36	10	14	12	+0	44
13	Bologna	35	11	10	14	-9	43
14	Empoli	36	9	10	17	-21	37
15	Sampdoria	36	9	6	21	-17	33
16	Spezia	35	9	6	20	-26	33
17	Salernitana	35	7	8	20	-41	29
18	Genoa	36	4	16	16	-29	28
19	Cagliari	35	6	10	19	-32	28
20	Venezia	35	5	7	23	-36	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+29	42
2	Milan	18	11	4	3	+14	37
3	Lazio	18	10	5	3	+17	35
4	Fiorentina	17	11	2	4	+14	35
5	Roma	18	10	5	3	+10	35
6	Juventus	18	10	4	4	+11	34
7	Napoli	18	10	3	5	+18	33
8	Verona	17	9	3	5	+12	30
9	Torino	18	8	5	5	+11	29
10	Bologna	18	8	4	6	+3	28
11	Udinese	18	6	7	5	+3	25
12	Sassuolo	18	6	6	6	+0	24
13	Atalanta	18	4	8	6	+3	20
14	Spezia	17	5	3	9	-4	18
15	Sampdoria	18	5	3	10	-6	18
16	Genoa	18	3	8	7	-10	17
17	Empoli	18	4	4	10	-16	16
18	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-11	15
19	Salernitana	17	3	5	9	-18	14
20	Venezia	17	2	4	11	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+19	40
2	Milan	17	12	4	1	+17	40
3	Inter	18	10	6	2	+18	36
4	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+15	36
5	Juventus	18	10	5	3	+11	35
6	Lazio	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Roma	17	7	3	7	+5	24
8	Sassuolo	18	6	5	7	-1	23
9	Verona	18	5	7	6	-3	22
10	Empoli	18	5	6	7	-5	21
11	Fiorentina	18	6	3	9	-7	21
12	Udinese	18	4	7	7	-3	19
13	Torino	18	4	6	8	-4	18
14	Sampdoria	18	4	3	11	-11	15
15	Bologna	17	3	6	8	-12	15
16	Spezia	18	4	3	11	-22	15
17	Salernitana	18	4	3	11	-23	15
18	Cagliari	17	3	4	10	-21	13
19	Venezia	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Genoa	18	1	8	9	-19	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.