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Serie A

Referee: G Aureliano

Lecce

T U T T U

2–1

Full-time

Atalanta

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 35%

62%

Points per game

0,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

23%

31%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Atalanta 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+24	38
2	Milan	14	9	3	2	+13	30
3	Lazio	13	8	3	2	+17	27
4	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+9	27
5	Juventus	13	7	4	2	+13	25
6	Roma	13	8	1	4	+4	25
7	Udinese	14	6	6	2	+8	24
8	Inter	13	8	0	5	+6	24
9	Salernitana	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	Torino	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Bologna	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Sassuolo	13	4	3	6	-4	15
14	Empoli	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Monza	13	4	1	8	-8	13
16	Spezia	14	2	4	8	-13	10
17	Lecce	13	1	6	6	-6	9
18	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-13	7
19	Sampdoria	13	1	3	9	-17	6
20	Verona	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+14	19
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Inter	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+6	12
7	Bologna	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Salernitana	7	3	2	2	+4	11
9	Atalanta	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+4	10
11	Spezia	7	2	4	1	+1	10
12	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	9
13	Monza	7	3	0	4	+0	9
14	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-2	8
16	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	4
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Cremonese	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Atalanta	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Roma	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Milan	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Torino	7	3	0	4	-3	9
8	Inter	7	3	0	4	-4	9
9	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	+0	8
10	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Salernitana	6	1	3	2	-5	6
12	Empoli	7	1	3	3	-6	6
13	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Sassuolo	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Cremonese	7	0	4	3	-4	4
16	Bologna	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Monza	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Verona	7	0	2	5	-8	2
20	Spezia	7	0	0	7	-14	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.