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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Atalanta

S U S U S

5–2

Full-time

Spezia

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

0 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 4. · Spezia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Milan	12	10	2	0	+15	32
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+16	25
4	Atalanta	12	6	4	2	+7	22
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+6	21
6	Roma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
7	Fiorentina	12	6	0	6	+2	18
8	Juventus	12	5	3	4	+1	18
9	Bologna	12	5	3	4	-4	18
10	Verona	12	4	4	4	+4	16
11	Empoli	12	5	1	6	-5	16
12	Torino	12	4	2	6	+3	14
13	Sassuolo	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Udinese	12	3	5	4	-3	14
15	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-8	12
16	Spezia	12	3	2	7	-13	11
17	Genoa	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-10	9
19	Salernitana	12	2	1	9	-16	7
20	Cagliari	12	1	3	8	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Milan	6	5	1	0	+9	16
3	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Roma	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Verona	6	4	0	2	+6	12
7	Inter	5	3	2	0	+11	11
8	Torino	6	3	1	2	+6	10
9	Juventus	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+4	9
11	Udinese	7	2	3	2	-1	9
12	Venezia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	+0	7
14	Spezia	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Sampdoria	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Salernitana	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Atalanta	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Milan	6	5	1	0	+6	16
4	Inter	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Empoli	5	4	0	1	+4	12
6	Fiorentina	7	3	0	4	-2	9
7	Juventus	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Roma	6	2	0	4	+1	6
10	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	6
11	Udinese	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-6	5
13	Venezia	7	1	2	4	-8	5
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Verona	6	0	4	2	-2	4
16	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Torino	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Spezia	6	1	1	4	-12	4
19	Salernitana	6	1	0	5	-9	3
20	Cagliari	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.