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Coppa Italia
Referee: M Mariani
Cremonese
S T T U T
0–2
Full-time
Fiorentina
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cremonese Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
2,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coppa Italia · 4/2 matches
Win Ø 88%
75%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,5
2,0
Scored
2,8
1,5
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%
7 Shots 24
3 Shots on target 11
2 Blocked shots 2
8 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cremonese 1. · Fiorentina 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cremonese 4 3 1 0 +4 10
2 Torino 4 3 0 1 +7 9
3 Juventus 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Inter 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Bari 3 2 0 1 +5 6
6 Spezia 3 2 0 1 +3 6
7 Parma 3 2 0 1 +2 6
8 Fiorentina 2 2 0 0 +2 6
9 Modena 3 2 0 1 +1 6
10 Monza 3 2 0 1 +1 6
11 Genoa 3 2 0 1 +1 6
12 Bologna 3 2 0 1 +1 6
13 Ascoli 2 1 1 0 +1 4
14 Sampdoria 3 1 1 1 +0 4
15 Atalanta 2 1 0 1 +2 3
16 Brescia 2 1 0 1 +1 3
17 FeralpiSalo 2 1 0 1 +1 3
18 Udinese 2 1 0 1 +0 3
19 Cagliari 2 1 0 1 +0 3
20 Roma 2 1 0 1 +0 3
21 Spal 2 1 0 1 +0 3
22 Lazio 2 1 0 1 +0 3
23 Palermo 2 1 0 1 -2 3
24 Cittadella 2 1 0 1 -3 3
25 Napoli 1 0 1 0 +0 1
26 Perugia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
27 Benevento 1 0 0 1 -1 0
28 Lecce 1 0 0 1 -1 0
29 Venezia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
30 Frosinone 1 0 0 1 -1 0
31 Ternana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
32 Reggiana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
33 Sassuolo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
34 Empoli 1 0 0 1 -1 0
35 Milan 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Reggina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Sudtirol 1 0 0 1 -2 0
39 Catanzaro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
40 Salernitana 1 0 0 1 -2 0
41 Verona 1 0 0 1 -3 0
42 Pisa 1 0 0 1 -3 0
43 Padova 1 0 0 1 -3 0
44 Como 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cremonese Fiorentina
20′
Arthur Cabral 0–1
C. Biraghi
38′
🟨 Lucas Martínez Quarta
Half-time 0–1
C. Dessers 🔁
↦ F. Tsadjout
46′
C. Buonaiuto 🔁
↦ M. Castagnetti
46′
L. Sernicola 🔁
↦ M. Bianchetti
63′
F. Afena-Gyan 🔁
↦ D. Ciofani
67′
70′
🔁 G. Bonaventura
↦ A. Barák
Emanuel Aiwu 🟥
73′
73′
ℹ️ Arthur Cabral
VAR: Penalty confirmed
75′
N. González 0–2
L. Lochoshvili 🔁
↦ M. Benassi
76′
82′
🔁 L. Jović
↦ Arthur Cabral
86′
🔁 G. Castrovilli
↦ R. Mandragora
86′
🔁 J. Brekalo
↦ J. Ikoné
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Cremonese

3-5-2
45 M. Sarr G
4 E. Aiwu D
15 M. Bianchetti D
5 J. Vásquez D
6 C. Pickel M
26 M. Benassi M
19 M. Castagnetti M
28 S. Meïté M
3 E. Valeri M
74 F. Tsadjout F
9 D. Ciofani F
Bench (10)
90 C. Dessers
10 C. Buonaiuto
17 L. Sernicola
20 F. Afena-Gyan
44 L. Lochoshvili
18 P. Ghiglione
12 M. Carnesecchi
27 P. Galdames
13 G. Saro
33 G. Quagliata

Coach: D. Ballardini

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
28 L. Martínez D
98 Igor D
3 C. Biraghi D
34 S. Amrabat M
38 R. Mandragora M
11 J. Ikoné M
72 A. Barák M
22 N. González M
9 Arthur Cabral F
Bench (13)
5 G. Bonaventura
7 L. Jović
10 G. Castrovilli
77 J. Brekalo
16 L. Ranieri
23 L. Venuti
99 C. Kouamé
33 R. Sottil
15 A. Terzić
42 A. Bianco
51 T. Vannucchi
31 M. Cerofolini
32 A. Duncan

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.