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Premier League
Referee: C Pawson
West Ham
T S U S S
1–5
Full-time
Newcastle
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 37%
26%
48%
Points per game
1,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 32%
26%
37%
Both score Ø 41%
37%
44%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
0,9
1,5
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,98 xG 3,29
42% Possession 58%
7 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 6
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 15. · Newcastle 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 29 23 3 3 +43 +12.6 72
2 Man City 28 20 4 4 +45 +14.7 64
3 Newcastle 27 13 11 3 +22 +6.0 50
4 Tottenham 29 15 5 9 +12 +1.1 50
5 Man United 27 15 5 7 +4 -2.6 50
6 Brighton 27 13 7 7 +17 +12.6 46
7 Aston Villa 29 13 5 11 -1 -3.7 44
8 Liverpool 28 12 7 9 +15 +1.8 43
9 Brentford 28 10 13 5 +9 +1.2 43
10 Fulham 28 11 6 11 +0 -5.9 39
11 Chelsea 29 10 9 10 -1 +5.0 39
12 Crystal Palace 29 7 9 13 -15 -5.5 30
13 Leeds 29 7 8 14 -11 -4.3 29
14 Wolves 29 7 7 15 -19 -4.5 28
15 West Ham 27 7 6 14 -9 +1.5 27
16 Everton 29 6 9 14 -18 -5.6 27
17 Nott'm Forest 29 6 9 14 -28 -8.3 27
18 Bournemouth 29 7 6 16 -30 -6.2 27
19 Leicester 29 7 4 18 -11 -4.0 25
20 Southampton 29 6 5 18 -24 -6.0 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Newcastle
6′
C. Wilson 0–1
A. Saint-Maximin
13′
Joelinton 0–2
F. Schär
14′
ℹ️ Joelinton
VAR: Goal confirmed
1–2 K. Zouma
J. Bowen
40′
Emerson Palmieri 🟨
42′
Half-time 1–3
46′
C. Wilson 1–3
J. Murphy
52′
🟨 Joelinton
M. Cornet 🔁
↦ S. Benrahma
63′
F. Downes 🔁
↦ T. Souček
63′
V. Coufal 🔁
↦ T. Kehrer
63′
D. Ings 🔁
↦ M. Antonio
63′
64′
🔁 J. Willock
↦ J. Murphy
64′
🔁 A. Isak
↦ C. Wilson
64′
🔁 A. Gordon
↦ A. Saint-Maximin
82′
A. Isak 1–4
85′
🔁 M. Targett
↦ D. Burn
87′
🔁 Javi Manquillo
↦ K. Trippier
Flynn Downes 🟨
88′
90′
Joelinton 1–5
Bruno Guimarães
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
24 T. Kehrer D
4 K. Zouma D
27 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
28 T. Souček M
41 D. Rice M
20 J. Bowen M
11 Lucas Paquetá M
22 S. Benrahma M
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (9)
14 M. Cornet
12 F. Downes
5 V. Coufal
18 D. Ings
8 Pablo Fornals
21 A. Ogbonna
13 A. Aréola
10 M. Lanzini
3 A. Cresswell

Coach: D. Moyes

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
5 F. Schär D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
36 S. Longstaff M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
7 Joelinton M
23 J. Murphy F
9 C. Wilson F
10 A. Saint-Maximin F
Bench (9)
28 J. Willock
14 A. Isak
8 A. Gordon
13 M. Targett
19 Javi Manquillo
11 M. Ritchie
1 M. Dúbravka
32 E. Anderson
6 J. Lascelles

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,53
U
3,41
B ✓
2,15
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,14
U2,5
1,73
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Pawson · 173 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.