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Coppa Italia
Referee: M Marchetti
Fiorentina
U S S S T
0–0
Full-time
Bologna
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,3
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coppa Italia · 1/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
14 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
10 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Fiorentina 23. · Bologna 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Frosinone 3 3 0 0 +6 9
2 Bologna 3 3 0 0 +5 9
3 Parma 3 2 1 0 +5 7
4 Reggiana 3 2 0 1 +4 6
5 Cremonese 3 2 0 1 +2 6
6 Genoa 3 2 0 1 +1 6
7 Salernitana 3 2 0 1 +0 6
8 Cagliari 3 2 0 1 -1 6
9 Sassuolo 3 1 1 1 +1 4
10 Juventus 1 1 0 0 +5 3
11 Milan 1 1 0 0 +3 3
12 Udinese 2 1 0 1 +2 3
13 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Roma 1 1 0 0 +1 3
15 Lazio 1 1 0 0 +1 3
16 Torino 2 1 0 1 +0 3
17 FeralpiSalo 2 1 0 1 +0 3
18 Verona 2 1 0 1 +0 3
19 Cittadella 2 1 0 1 +0 3
20 Lecce 2 1 0 1 -1 3
21 Catanzaro 2 1 0 1 -2 3
22 Spezia 2 0 2 0 +0 2
23 Fiorentina 1 0 1 0 +0 1
24 Venezia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
25 Virtus Entella 1 0 1 0 +0 1
26 Sudtirol 1 0 1 0 +0 1
27 Cesena 2 0 1 1 -2 1
28 Sampdoria 2 0 1 1 -4 1
29 Modena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
30 Palermo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
31 Inter 1 0 0 1 -1 0
32 Empoli 1 0 0 1 -1 0
33 Monza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
34 Vicenza 1 0 0 1 -1 0
35 Como 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Ternana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Pisa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Foggia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Ascoli 1 0 0 1 -2 0
40 Crotone 1 0 0 1 -2 0
41 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 -3 0
42 Bari 1 0 0 1 -3 0
43 Pescara 1 0 0 1 -4 0
44 Napoli 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fiorentina Bologna
Half-time 0–0
M'Bala Nzola 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
60′
G. Bonaventura 🔁
↦ A. Barák
60′
F. Parisi 🔁
↦ C. Biraghi
72′
R. Mandragora 🔁
↦ A. Duncan
72′
Arthur 🔁
↦ L. Beltrán
77′
87′
🔁 R. Calafiori
↦ J. Lucumí
87′
🔁 N. Moro
↦ M. Aebischer
88′
🟨 Lewis Ferguson
109′
🟨 Alexis Saelemaekers
Y. Mina 🔁
↦ L. Martínez Quarta
110′
Giacomo Bonaventura 🟨
116′
121′
L. Ferguson 0–1
1–1 R. Mandragora
122′
123′
J. Zirkzee 1–2
2–2 Arthur
124′
125′
R. Orsolini 2–3
126′
R. Calafiori 2–4
3–4 N. Milenković
127′
4–4 Y. Mina
128′
129′
S. Posch
penalty missed
5–4 M. Lopez
130′
Full-time 5–4

Line-ups

Fiorentina

3-4-1-2
53 O. Christensen G
28 L. Martínez Quarta D
4 N. Milenković D
16 L. Ranieri D
33 M. Kayode M
8 M. Lopez M
32 A. Duncan M
3 C. Biraghi M
72 A. Barák F
11 J. Ikoné F
9 L. Beltrán F
Bench (13)
18 M'Bala Nzola
5 G. Bonaventura
65 F. Parisi
38 R. Mandragora
6 Arthur
26 Y. Mina
37 P. Comuzzo
77 J. Brekalo
19 G. Infantino
73 L. Amatucci
30 T. Martinelli
70 N. Pierozzi
1 P. Terracciano

Coach: V. Italiano

Bologna

4-2-3-1
28 Ł. Skorupski G
3 S. Posch D
31 S. Beukema D
26 J. Lucumí D
15 V. Kristiansen D
20 M. Aebischer M
8 R. Freuler M
7 R. Orsolini M
19 L. Ferguson M
56 A. Saelemaekers M
9 J. Zirkzee F
Bench (10)
33 R. Calafiori
6 N. Moro
16 T. Corazza
23 N. Bagnolini
22 C. Lykogiannis
29 L. De Silvestri
34 F. Ravaglia
77 S. van Hooijdonk
80 G. Fabbian
82 K. Urbański

Coach: T. Motta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Marchetti · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.