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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Fiorentina

T S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Bologna

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

48%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

70%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

59%

48%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Bologna 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	29	19	6	4	+26	63
2	Inter	27	17	7	3	+38	58
3	Napoli	28	17	6	5	+29	57
4	Juventus	29	16	8	5	+19	56
5	Atalanta	27	13	8	6	+19	47
6	Roma	28	14	5	9	+12	47
7	Lazio	28	13	7	8	+15	46
8	Fiorentina	27	13	4	10	+9	43
9	Verona	28	11	8	9	+9	41
10	Sassuolo	29	10	10	9	+3	40
11	Torino	27	9	7	11	+5	34
12	Bologna	27	9	6	12	-10	33
13	Empoli	29	8	8	13	-14	32
14	Udinese	26	6	11	9	-9	29
15	Spezia	29	8	5	16	-20	29
16	Sampdoria	29	7	5	17	-14	26
17	Cagliari	29	5	10	14	-25	25
18	Venezia	27	5	7	15	-26	22
19	Genoa	28	1	15	12	-25	18
20	Salernitana	27	3	7	17	-41	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	Milan	15	9	3	3	+11	30
3	Roma	15	8	4	3	+6	28
4	Juventus	14	8	3	3	+9	27
5	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+15	26
6	Napoli	14	8	2	4	+13	26
7	Verona	14	8	2	4	+12	26
8	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+14	25
9	Torino	14	7	3	4	+11	24
10	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+1	21
11	Udinese	13	4	6	3	-2	18
12	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+6	17
13	Sassuolo	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-2	15
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-5	15
16	Cagliari	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Venezia	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Genoa	14	0	8	6	-10	8
20	Salernitana	14	1	5	8	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	14	10	3	1	+15	33
2	Napoli	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+13	30
4	Juventus	15	8	5	2	+10	29
5	Inter	13	7	5	1	+15	26
6	Sassuolo	15	6	5	4	+6	23
7	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+1	21
8	Empoli	15	5	6	4	+1	21
9	Roma	13	6	1	6	+6	19
10	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-6	17
11	Verona	14	3	6	5	-3	15
12	Spezia	15	4	2	9	-18	14
13	Cagliari	15	3	4	8	-16	13
14	Bologna	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Venezia	13	3	3	7	-13	12
16	Udinese	13	2	5	6	-7	11
17	Sampdoria	14	3	2	9	-9	11
18	Torino	13	2	4	7	-6	10
19	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-15	10
20	Salernitana	13	2	2	9	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.