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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Monza

U U T S T

0–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

31%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,74 xG 1,98

53% Possession 47%

7 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 11. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	13	2	1	+32	+22.0	41
2	Juventus	16	11	4	1	+14	+14.6	37
3	Milan	16	10	2	4	+11	+2.2	32
4	Bologna	16	7	7	2	+8	+4.9	28
5	Napoli	16	8	3	5	+9	+12.8	27
6	Fiorentina	16	8	3	5	+7	-3.0	27
7	Atalanta	16	8	2	6	+9	+5.1	26
8	Roma	16	7	4	5	+9	+7.0	25
9	Lazio	17	7	3	7	+0	+4.1	24
10	Torino	16	6	5	5	-2	+0.0	23
11	Monza	16	5	6	5	-1	-3.9	21
12	Lecce	16	4	8	4	-2	-9.5	20
13	Genoa	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.7	19
14	Frosinone	16	5	4	7	-5	-5.6	19
15	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-7	-5.8	16
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-13	-6.1	13
17	Udinese	16	1	10	5	-13	-4.1	13
18	Empoli	17	3	3	11	-20	-8.6	12
19	Verona	16	2	5	9	-10	-7.9	11
20	Salernitana	16	1	5	10	-22	-17.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+13.5	19
3	Bologna	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.9	19
4	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
5	Roma	8	5	2	1	+12	+5.3	17
6	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+4	-1.7	17
7	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+9	+4.2	16
8	Fiorentina	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.8	16
9	Torino	8	4	3	1	+3	+3.7	15
10	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
11	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.7	14
12	Monza	8	3	4	1	+5	+1.5	13
13	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+1	-0.3	12
14	Cagliari	8	3	2	3	-4	+1.5	11
15	Napoli	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.1	10
16	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-3	-0.9	8
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Udinese	8	0	6	2	-5	+2.1	6
19	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.8	6
20	Empoli	9	1	2	6	-9	-3.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+16	+8.4	22
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+6	+5.4	17
4	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.4	14
5	Fiorentina	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.8	11
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Lazio	9	3	1	5	-2	-0.6	10
8	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
9	Roma	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.7	8
10	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.9	8
11	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
12	Monza	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.3	8
13	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-5	-0.5	7
14	Udinese	8	1	4	3	-8	-6.1	7
15	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-11	-5.1	7
16	Lecce	7	0	5	2	-2	-8.0	5
17	Verona	9	1	2	6	-6	-5.8	5
18	Frosinone	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.9	2
19	Cagliari	8	0	2	6	-9	-7.5	2
20	Salernitana	8	0	2	6	-13	-11.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.