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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Aston Villa

T T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Liverpool

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 55%

38%

71%

Points per game

1,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

59%

60%

Both score Ø 42%

47%

37%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,4

2,5

Conceded

1,4

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	27	5	3	+68	86
2	Liverpool	35	25	8	2	+64	83
3	Chelsea	35	19	10	6	+39	67
4	Arsenal	35	21	3	11	+14	66
5	Tottenham	35	19	5	11	+20	62
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	Wolves	35	15	5	15	+1	50
9	Brighton	36	11	14	11	-4	47
10	Crystal Palace	35	10	14	11	+4	44
11	Aston Villa	34	13	4	17	+0	43
12	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-8	43
13	Newcastle	36	11	10	15	-21	43
14	Leicester	34	11	9	14	-7	42
15	Southampton	36	9	13	14	-20	40
16	Everton	34	10	5	19	-19	35
17	Burnley	35	7	13	15	-17	34
18	Leeds	35	8	10	17	-35	34
19	Watford	35	6	4	25	-38	22
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-53	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+42	44
3	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
4	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
5	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+15	34
6	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
7	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
8	Leicester	17	8	4	5	+5	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
11	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
12	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	17	7	2	8	-1	23
15	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+1	21
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-16	17
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	17	2	1	14	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+25	37
4	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
5	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
6	Arsenal	17	9	1	7	+0	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
14	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-18	16
15	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Everton	17	2	3	12	-21	9
20	Norwich	17	2	3	12	-27	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.