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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Liverpool

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 46%

47%

45%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

48%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

23 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 7. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	32	23	5	4	+44	74
2	Man United	30	17	9	4	+25	60
3	Leicester	30	17	5	8	+19	56
4	West Ham	30	15	7	8	+11	52
5	Chelsea	30	14	9	7	+16	51
6	Tottenham	30	14	7	9	+19	49
7	Liverpool	30	14	7	9	+15	49
8	Everton	29	14	5	10	+3	47
9	Leeds	31	14	3	14	+0	45
10	Aston Villa	29	13	5	11	+11	44
11	Arsenal	30	12	6	12	+5	42
12	Wolves	31	10	8	13	-10	38
13	Crystal Palace	30	10	8	12	-16	38
14	Southampton	30	10	6	14	-14	36
15	Burnley	30	8	9	13	-16	33
16	Brighton	30	7	11	12	-5	32
17	Newcastle	30	7	8	15	-20	29
18	Fulham	32	5	11	16	-18	26
19	West Brom	30	4	9	17	-34	21
20	Sheffield United	30	4	2	24	-35	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	2	3	+22	38
2	West Ham	15	8	4	3	+8	28
3	Man United	15	8	3	4	+11	27
4	Chelsea	15	7	5	3	+11	26
5	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+11	24
6	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+4	23
7	Leicester	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Leeds	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Aston Villa	14	6	2	6	+4	20
11	Southampton	15	6	2	7	+1	20
12	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-6	20
13	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-1	19
14	Everton	15	5	3	7	-3	18
15	Burnley	15	4	6	5	-4	18
16	Newcastle	15	4	5	6	-6	17
17	Brighton	15	2	7	6	-3	13
18	West Brom	15	2	5	8	-24	11
19	Sheffield United	15	3	1	11	-12	10
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+22	36
2	Leicester	15	10	4	1	+15	34
3	Man United	15	9	6	0	+14	33
4	Everton	14	9	2	3	+6	29
5	Liverpool	15	7	5	3	+11	26
6	Tottenham	16	7	4	5	+8	25
7	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+5	25
8	Aston Villa	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	West Ham	15	7	3	5	+3	24
10	Leeds	16	8	0	8	-3	24
11	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+5	21
12	Brighton	15	5	4	6	-2	19
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Crystal Palace	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Fulham	15	3	7	5	-3	16
16	Southampton	15	4	4	7	-15	16
17	Burnley	15	4	3	8	-12	15
18	Newcastle	15	3	3	9	-14	12
19	West Brom	15	2	4	9	-10	10
20	Sheffield United	15	1	1	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.