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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Aston Villa

T U S S T

1–2

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 60%

30%

90%

Points per game

1,1

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

70%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

26% Possession 74%

5 Shots 25

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 10

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 15. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+15	28
2	Man City	10	7	1	2	+23	22
3	Leicester	10	6	2	2	+17	20
4	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Arsenal	10	4	4	2	+1	16
6	Bournemouth	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	-2	15
8	Man United	11	3	4	4	+2	13
9	Sheffield United	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	West Ham	10	3	4	3	-2	13
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	+1	12
12	Wolves	10	2	6	2	+0	12
13	Burnley	10	3	3	4	-1	12
14	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
15	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-1	11
16	Everton	10	3	1	6	-6	10
17	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-9	9
18	Southampton	10	2	2	6	-16	8
19	Norwich	10	2	1	7	-13	7
20	Watford	10	0	5	5	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Man City	5	3	1	1	+13	10
5	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+6	10
6	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Burnley	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Everton	5	3	0	2	+0	9
9	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
10	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Crystal Palace	5	2	2	1	+1	8
14	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+0	6
16	Wolves	5	1	3	1	-1	6
17	Sheffield United	5	2	0	3	-1	6
18	Norwich	5	2	0	3	-4	6
19	Watford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
20	Southampton	5	0	1	4	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Man City	5	4	0	1	+10	12
3	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+8	7
5	Sheffield United	5	1	4	0	+2	7
6	Bournemouth	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
8	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Wolves	5	1	3	1	+1	6
10	West Ham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Arsenal	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Man United	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Burnley	5	0	3	2	-2	3
15	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Newcastle	5	1	0	4	-9	3
17	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Watford	5	0	2	3	-11	2
19	Everton	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.