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Süper Lig

Referee: M Erdoğan

Ad. Demirspor

T T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Karagumruk

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ad. Demirspor Karagumruk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

56%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,69 xG 0,84

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ad. Demirspor 12. · Karagumruk 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	28	24	3	1	+43	+37.7	75
2	Fenerbahce	28	23	4	1	+50	+50.4	73
3	Trabzonspor	27	14	4	9	+10	+0.5	46
4	Besiktas	28	14	4	10	+7	+9.4	46
5	Kasimpasa	28	11	7	10	-2	-10.0	40
6	Buyuksehyr	28	11	6	11	+3	-0.9	39
7	Rizespor	28	11	6	11	-9	-5.3	39
8	Sivasspor	28	9	11	8	-3	-6.0	38
9	Kayserispor	28	10	8	10	-6	-9.0	38
10	Antalyaspor	27	8	11	8	+1	-0.3	35
11	Samsunspor	28	9	6	13	-4	+3.3	33
12	Ad. Demirspor	27	7	11	9	+3	-1.1	32
13	Konyaspor	28	7	10	11	-11	-12.0	31
14	Ankaragücü	28	6	12	10	-3	-4.0	30
15	Alanyaspor	27	6	12	9	-8	+0.8	30
16	Karagumruk	27	7	8	12	+1	-8.9	29
17	Hatayspor	28	6	11	11	-7	-3.9	29
18	Gaziantep	27	7	7	13	-9	-9.7	28
19	Pendikspor	28	6	8	14	-25	-11.2	26
20	İstanbulspor	28	3	7	18	-31	-19.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	14	14	0	0	+24	+25.9	42
2	Fenerbahce	14	10	3	1	+24	+27.5	33
3	Rizespor	15	9	3	3	+8	+4.4	30
4	Samsunspor	14	8	2	4	+8	+4.4	26
5	Besiktas	14	8	2	4	+8	+6.4	26
6	Trabzonspor	13	8	1	4	+4	+2.2	25
7	Ad. Demirspor	13	7	3	3	+11	+4.9	24
8	Karagumruk	14	6	5	3	+12	-0.8	23
9	Buyuksehyr	14	7	2	5	+6	+0.7	23
10	Kayserispor	14	6	5	3	+5	+1.1	23
11	Antalyaspor	14	5	7	2	+2	+0.6	22
12	Kasimpasa	14	6	4	4	+0	-3.8	22
13	Sivasspor	13	4	7	2	+3	+1.7	19
14	Hatayspor	14	4	7	3	+2	-1.8	19
15	Ankaragücü	15	4	7	4	+0	+1.3	19
16	Konyaspor	13	5	3	5	+3	+0.9	18
17	Alanyaspor	13	4	6	3	+1	+3.4	18
18	Pendikspor	14	4	3	7	-10	-7.6	15
19	Gaziantep	14	3	5	6	-6	-6.0	14
20	İstanbulspor	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fenerbahce	14	13	1	0	+26	+22.9	40
2	Galatasaray	14	10	3	1	+19	+11.8	33
3	Trabzonspor	14	6	3	5	+6	-1.6	21
4	Besiktas	14	6	2	6	-1	+2.9	20
5	Sivasspor	15	5	4	6	-6	-7.7	19
6	Kasimpasa	14	5	3	6	-2	-6.2	18
7	Buyuksehyr	14	4	4	6	-3	-1.6	16
8	Kayserispor	14	4	3	7	-11	-10.1	15
9	Gaziantep	13	4	2	7	-3	-3.7	14
10	Antalyaspor	13	3	4	6	-1	-0.9	13
11	Konyaspor	15	2	7	6	-14	-12.8	13
12	Alanyaspor	14	2	6	6	-9	-2.5	12
13	Ankaragücü	13	2	5	6	-3	-5.3	11
14	Pendikspor	14	2	5	7	-15	-3.6	11
15	Hatayspor	14	2	4	8	-9	-2.1	10
16	Rizespor	13	2	3	8	-17	-9.7	9
17	Ad. Demirspor	14	0	8	6	-8	-6.0	8
18	Samsunspor	14	1	4	9	-12	-1.1	7
19	İstanbulspor	14	1	4	9	-15	-8.6	7
20	Karagumruk	13	1	3	9	-11	-8.1	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.