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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man United

S T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

3,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

30% Possession 70%

12 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 19. · Liverpool 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Fulham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+3	4
9	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-5	3
15	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Everton	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Man United	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
5	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-2	3
6	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-4	0
20	Man United	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.