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Premier League
Referee: A Madley
Brighton
S S T U S
4–0
Full-time
Man United
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,5
This season — Premier League · 35/36 matches
Win Ø 37%
29%
44%
Points per game
1,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
31%
50%
Both score Ø 54%
46%
61%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%
17 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 6
3 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brighton 10. · Man United 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 34 26 5 3 +63 83
2 Liverpool 34 25 7 2 +64 82
3 Chelsea 35 19 10 6 +39 67
4 Arsenal 34 20 3 11 +13 63
5 Tottenham 34 19 4 11 +20 61
6 Man United 36 16 10 10 +5 58
7 West Ham 35 15 7 13 +7 52
8 Wolves 35 15 5 15 +1 50
9 Crystal Palace 35 10 14 11 +4 44
10 Brighton 35 10 14 11 -8 44
11 Aston Villa 34 13 4 17 +0 43
12 Brentford 36 12 7 17 -8 43
13 Newcastle 35 11 10 14 -16 43
14 Leicester 33 11 9 13 -6 42
15 Southampton 36 9 13 14 -20 40
16 Burnley 35 7 13 15 -17 34
17 Leeds 34 8 10 16 -34 34
18 Everton 33 9 5 19 -20 32
19 Watford 35 6 4 25 -38 22
20 Norwich 34 5 6 23 -49 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brighton Man United
1–0 M. Caicedo
15′
45′
🟨 Cristiano Ronaldo
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Fred
↦ A. Elanga
46′
🔁 E. Cavani
↦ N. Matić
47′
🟨 Diogo Dalot
2–0 Cucurella
L. Trossard
49′
3–0 P. Groß
L. Trossard
57′
4–0 L. Trossard
60′
Leandro Trossard ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
61′
A. Webster 🔁
↦ A. Mac Allister
67′
70′
🔁 H. Maguire
↦ Mata
T. Lamptey 🔁
↦ S. March
76′
N. Maupay 🔁
↦ L. Trossard
83′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Brighton

3-4-2-1
1 Robert Sánchez G
34 J. Veltman D
5 L. Dunk D
3 Cucurella D
13 P. Groß F
20 S. March M
8 Y. Bissouma M
10 A. Mac Allister F
25 M. Caicedo M
18 D. Welbeck F
11 L. Trossard M
Bench (9)
4 A. Webster
2 T. Lamptey
9 N. Maupay
24 S. Duffy
23 J. Steele
17 S. Alzate
58 E. Ferguson
57 O. Offiah
14 A. Lallana

Coach: G. Potter

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
27 Alex Telles D
2 V. Lindelöf D
19 R. Varane D
20 Diogo Dalot D
8 Mata M
31 N. Matić M
18 Bruno Fernandes M
39 S. McTominay M
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F
36 A. Elanga M
Bench (9)
17 Fred
21 E. Cavani
5 H. Maguire
75 Alejandro Garnacho
4 P. Jones
14 J. Lingard
26 D. Henderson
74 Álvaro Fernández
29 A. Wan-Bissaka

Coach: R. Rangnick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,80
U
3,44
B
2,56
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,93
U2,5
1,90
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Madley · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.