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Bundesliga
Referee: C Dingert
Dortmund
U S U S T
3–3
Full-time
Paderborn
T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Paderborn
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,3
0,8
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,2
This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 27%
45%
9%
Points per game
1,7
0,4
Over 2.5 Ø 78%
82%
73%
Both score Ø 60%
55%
64%
Average goals
3,5
3,4
Scored
2,1
1,0
Conceded
1,4
2,4
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

67% Possession 33%
18 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 2
4 Offside 5
8 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 6. · Paderborn 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 M'gladbach 11 8 1 2 +13 25
2 RB Leipzig 11 6 3 2 +17 21
3 Bayern Munich 11 6 3 2 +13 21
4 Freiburg 11 6 3 2 +8 21
5 Hoffenheim 11 6 2 3 +2 20
6 Dortmund 11 5 4 2 +8 19
7 Schalke 04 11 5 4 2 +6 19
8 Leverkusen 11 5 3 3 +2 18
9 Ein Frankfurt 11 5 2 4 +5 17
10 Wolfsburg 11 4 5 2 +1 17
11 Union Berlin 11 4 1 6 -4 13
12 Hertha 11 3 2 6 -4 11
13 Fortuna Dusseldorf 11 3 2 6 -4 11
14 Werder Bremen 11 2 5 4 -6 11
15 Augsburg 11 2 4 5 -11 10
16 Mainz 11 3 0 8 -18 9
17 FC Koln 11 2 1 8 -13 7
18 Paderborn 11 1 1 9 -15 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Paderborn
5′
S. Mamba 0–1
K. Pröger
Mats Hummels 🟨
28′
37′
S. Mamba 0–2
B. Zolinski
40′
🔁 A. Sabiri
↦ S. Vasiliadis
43′
G. Holtmann 0–3
J. Collins
Half-time 0–3
T. Hazard 🔁
↦ M. Dahoud
46′
A. Hakimi 🔁
↦ N. Schulz
46′
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ Paco Alcácer
47′
1–3 J. Sancho
A. Hakimi
47′
62′
🔁 C. Antwi-Adjej
↦ G. Holtmann
Julian Weigl 🟨
74′
77′
🔁 S. Michel
↦ B. Zolinski
Achraf Hakimi 🟨
84′
84′
🟨 Jamilu Collins
2–3 A. Witsel
M. Hummels
84′
3–3 M. Reus
J. Sancho
92′
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
26 Ł. Piszczek D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro M
28 A. Witsel M
14 N. Schulz D
33 J. Weigl D
8 M. Dahoud M
7 J. Sancho M
11 M. Reus M
9 Paco Alcácer F
Bench (8)
19 J. Brandt
23 T. Hazard
5 A. Hakimi
16 M. Akanji
29 M. Schmelzer
10 M. Götze
35 M. Hitz
2 D. Zagadou

Coach: L. Favre

Paderborn

4-2-3-1
17 L. Zingerle G
20 L. Jans D
13 S. Schonlau D
29 J. Collins D
15 L. Kilian D
31 B. Zolinski M
8 K. Gjasula M
38 G. Holtmann M
9 K. Pröger M
39 S. Vasiliadis M
30 S. Mamba F
Bench (9)
19 A. Sabiri
22 C. Antwi-Adjej
11 S. Michel
21 J. Huth
10 Cauly
14 K. Shelton
5 C. Strohdiek
2 U. Hünemeier
25 M. Dräger

Coach: S. Baumgart

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,15
U ✓
8,57
B
16,15
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,22
U2,5
4,19
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Dingert · 108 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.