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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Paderborn

T U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 10

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 18. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+13	14
2	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+8	13
3	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+8	13
4	Schalke 04	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	M'gladbach	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+4	13
7	Wolfsburg	6	3	3	0	+5	12
8	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+8	11
9	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Hertha	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	-4	7
12	Hoffenheim	6	1	2	3	-6	5
13	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-7	5
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	1	1	5	-5	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	1	4	-6	4
16	Mainz	6	1	0	5	-11	3
17	FC Koln	6	1	0	5	-11	3
18	Paderborn	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	7
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+8	7
3	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	RB Leipzig	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	M'gladbach	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Paderborn	3	0	0	3	-7	0
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Hertha	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Dortmund	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	FC Koln	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Hoffenheim	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Augsburg	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.