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Bundesliga

Referee: S Storks

M'gladbach

U S T S S

1–3

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

2,3

3,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 60%

62%

58%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

69%

62%

Both score Ø 62%

69%

54%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,9

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 3. · Leverkusen 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	18	4	4	+49	58
2	Dortmund	26	16	6	4	+39	54
3	M'gladbach	26	16	4	6	+21	52
4	RB Leipzig	26	14	9	3	+36	51
5	Leverkusen	26	15	5	6	+18	50
6	Wolfsburg	26	10	9	7	+5	39
7	Freiburg	26	10	7	9	-1	37
8	Schalke 04	26	9	10	7	-7	37
9	Hoffenheim	26	10	5	11	-11	35
10	Hertha	27	9	7	11	-9	34
11	FC Koln	26	10	3	13	-6	33
12	Union Berlin	27	9	3	15	-15	30
13	Ein Frankfurt	25	8	4	13	-5	28
14	Augsburg	26	7	6	13	-17	27
15	Mainz	26	8	3	15	-19	27
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	26	5	8	13	-23	23
17	Werder Bremen	25	4	6	15	-31	18
18	Paderborn	26	4	5	17	-24	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	10	3	0	+35	33
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	2	2	+27	29
3	M'gladbach	13	9	2	2	+14	29
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	5	1	+19	26
5	Leverkusen	13	7	4	2	+12	25
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	+9	21
7	Schalke 04	13	5	6	2	+0	21
8	FC Koln	13	6	2	5	+4	20
9	Freiburg	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Union Berlin	13	6	1	6	+0	19
11	Wolfsburg	13	4	6	3	+3	18
12	Augsburg	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Hoffenheim	14	5	1	8	-15	16
14	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Mainz	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	3	4	6	-10	13
17	Paderborn	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Werder Bremen	12	1	2	9	-21	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	9	2	2	+22	29
2	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+17	25
3	Leverkusen	13	8	1	4	+6	25
4	M'gladbach	13	7	2	4	+7	23
5	Dortmund	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Wolfsburg	13	6	3	4	+2	21
7	Hoffenheim	12	5	4	3	+4	19
8	Hertha	13	5	4	4	+1	19
9	Freiburg	14	4	5	5	-3	17
10	Schalke 04	13	4	4	5	-7	16
11	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	-10	13
12	FC Koln	13	4	1	8	-10	13
13	Mainz	13	4	1	8	-13	13
14	Union Berlin	14	3	2	9	-15	11
15	Paderborn	13	2	4	7	-10	10
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	2	4	7	-13	10
17	Augsburg	13	2	3	8	-19	9
18	Ein Frankfurt	12	2	1	9	-14	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.