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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Dortmund

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 62%

68%

55%

Points per game

2,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

59%

73%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,19 xG 2,24

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	13	7	2	+43	+4.6	46
2	Dortmund	22	15	1	6	+18	+6.6	46
3	Union Berlin	22	13	4	5	+8	+0.9	43
4	RB Leipzig	22	12	6	4	+18	+4.5	42
5	Freiburg	22	12	5	5	+3	-0.8	41
6	Ein Frankfurt	22	11	5	6	+12	-2.1	38
7	Wolfsburg	22	9	6	7	+11	+2.5	33
8	Mainz	22	9	5	8	+3	+0.9	32
9	Werder Bremen	22	9	3	10	-7	-5.7	30
10	M'gladbach	22	8	5	9	-1	-3.4	29
11	Leverkusen	22	8	4	10	+0	+5.6	28
12	FC Koln	22	6	8	8	-4	+0.9	26
13	Augsburg	22	7	3	12	-12	-0.5	24
14	Hertha	22	5	5	12	-13	-4.5	20
15	Stuttgart	22	4	7	11	-11	+0.3	19
16	Hoffenheim	22	5	4	13	-12	-4.9	19
17	Bochum	22	6	1	15	-30	-4.4	19
18	Schalke 04	22	3	7	12	-26	-0.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	11	8	2	1	+15	-0.6	26
2	Bayern Munich	11	7	4	0	+26	+8.2	25
3	Dortmund	10	8	1	1	+18	+4.3	25
4	Union Berlin	10	7	3	0	+11	+2.1	24
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+10	+1.4	24
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	1	3	+13	+2.3	22
7	M'gladbach	11	7	1	3	+10	+0.4	22
8	FC Koln	11	5	3	3	+9	+3.6	18
9	Mainz	11	4	4	3	+7	+1.8	16
10	Werder Bremen	12	5	1	6	+2	-0.2	16
11	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-1	-1.1	16
12	Bochum	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.1	16
13	Wolfsburg	10	4	3	3	+6	+1.4	15
14	Stuttgart	11	4	3	4	+2	+2.5	15
15	Leverkusen	11	4	2	5	+5	+2.5	14
16	Augsburg	11	4	2	5	-5	+1.8	14
17	Schalke 04	12	3	3	6	-14	-0.7	12
18	Hoffenheim	12	3	2	7	-7	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	6	3	2	+17	-3.5	21
2	Dortmund	12	7	0	5	+0	+2.3	21
3	Union Berlin	12	6	1	5	-3	-1.2	19
4	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+5	+1.1	18
5	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	-7	-2.2	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	4	3	+3	+5.2	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	4	4	3	-1	-4.4	16
8	Mainz	11	5	1	5	-4	-0.9	16
9	Leverkusen	11	4	2	5	-5	+3.1	14
10	Werder Bremen	10	4	2	4	-9	-5.5	14
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.2	10
12	Hoffenheim	10	2	2	6	-5	-4.6	8
13	FC Koln	11	1	5	5	-13	-2.7	8
14	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-11	-3.8	7
15	Hertha	10	1	1	8	-12	-3.4	4
16	Schalke 04	10	0	4	6	-12	+0.2	4
17	Stuttgart	11	0	4	7	-13	-2.2	4
18	Bochum	12	1	0	11	-28	-5.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.