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Bundesliga

Referee: F Exner

Hoffenheim

S S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Augsburg

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

78%

59%

Both score Ø 78%

85%

70%

Average goals

3,6

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,78 xG 1,10

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 9. · Augsburg 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	+50	+35.1	76
2	Bayern Munich	28	19	3	6	+44	+50.5	60
3	Stuttgart	28	19	3	6	+30	+30.3	60
4	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	+31	+24.4	53
5	Dortmund	28	15	8	5	+22	+11.0	53
6	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	12	6	+7	-3.9	42
7	Augsburg	27	9	9	9	+1	-3.6	36
8	Freiburg	28	10	6	12	-12	-2.4	36
9	Hoffenheim	27	9	6	12	-7	-9.3	33
10	Heidenheim	28	8	9	11	-8	-20.9	33
11	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	-8	-8.5	31
12	Union Berlin	28	8	5	15	-18	-10.4	29
13	M'gladbach	27	6	10	11	-7	-4.9	28
14	Wolfsburg	27	7	7	13	-11	-2.5	28
15	Bochum	28	5	11	12	-25	-18.8	26
16	Mainz	28	4	11	13	-20	-3.0	23
17	FC Koln	28	4	10	14	-26	-28.1	22
18	Darmstadt	28	2	8	18	-43	-35.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+30	+24.5	38
2	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+36	+31.4	34
3	Stuttgart	14	10	3	1	+26	+24.1	33
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	3	2	+22	+19.0	30
5	Dortmund	14	8	2	4	+7	+11.5	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	7	1	+10	+5.3	25
7	Heidenheim	14	6	4	4	+2	-5.3	22
8	Augsburg	14	5	6	3	+2	+0.1	21
9	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	-1	+6.1	20
10	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
11	M'gladbach	14	5	4	5	+2	+5.7	19
12	Bochum	14	4	7	3	+1	+2.2	19
13	Werder Bremen	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.1	18
14	Wolfsburg	13	4	4	5	+0	-0.6	16
15	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-1	+8.8	16
16	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-5	+1.2	13
17	FC Koln	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.5	12
18	Darmstadt	14	1	3	10	-21	-10.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+20	+10.6	38
2	Dortmund	14	7	6	1	+15	-0.5	27
3	Stuttgart	14	9	0	5	+4	+6.3	27
4	Bayern Munich	14	8	2	4	+8	+19.1	26
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	2	5	+9	+5.4	23
6	Hoffenheim	14	6	2	6	-2	-10.4	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-3	-9.2	17
8	Freiburg	14	5	1	8	-11	-8.4	16
9	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-1	-3.6	15
10	Werder Bremen	14	3	4	7	-7	-8.3	13
11	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.9	12
12	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-10	-15.6	11
13	FC Koln	14	1	7	6	-14	-17.6	10
14	M'gladbach	13	1	6	6	-9	-10.6	9
15	Union Berlin	14	2	3	9	-14	-6.6	9
16	Darmstadt	14	1	5	8	-22	-24.5	8
17	Mainz	14	0	7	7	-19	-11.8	7
18	Bochum	14	1	4	9	-26	-21.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.