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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Montpellier

T U S T S

2–0

Full-time

Lorient

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 24%

26%

22%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,35 xG 1,46

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 13. · Lorient 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	18	9	1	+41	+23.8	63
2	Brest	28	15	8	5	+18	+10.3	53
3	Lille	28	13	10	5	+17	+14.4	49
4	Monaco	27	14	7	6	+14	+7.6	49
5	Lens	28	12	7	9	+7	+0.5	43
6	Nice	27	12	7	8	+6	+9.6	43
7	Marseille	28	10	9	9	+8	+16.5	39
8	Rennes	27	10	9	8	+7	+6.9	39
9	Reims	27	11	6	10	-1	+5.5	39
10	Lyon	27	10	5	12	-10	-5.8	35
11	Toulouse	27	8	8	11	-4	-7.0	32
12	Strasbourg	27	8	8	11	-9	-2.9	32
13	Montpellier	27	7	9	11	-7	+1.3	30
14	Le Havre	28	6	10	12	-9	-11.5	28
15	Nantes	27	8	4	15	-16	-11.7	28
16	Lorient	27	6	8	13	-15	-14.2	26
17	Metz	28	6	5	17	-20	-19.1	23
18	Clermont	28	4	9	15	-27	-24.4	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	14	10	3	1	+20	+18.2	33
2	Paris SG	14	8	5	1	+19	+16.7	29
3	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
4	Brest	14	8	5	1	+13	+13.3	29
5	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	+7.9	25
6	Rennes	14	7	3	4	+10	+11.3	24
7	Lens	14	7	3	4	+6	+4.9	24
8	Monaco	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
9	Reims	13	6	2	5	+0	+6.1	20
10	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-2	+1.3	18
11	Le Havre	13	5	2	6	+0	+2.2	17
12	Lyon	14	4	4	6	-7	+0.7	16
13	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	+0	+4.1	14
14	Montpellier	14	2	8	4	-3	+7.3	14
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-7	-4.3	12
17	Clermont	14	2	4	8	-15	-8.5	10
18	Metz	13	2	3	8	-7	-1.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+22	+7.1	34
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	14	7	3	4	+5	-3.0	24
4	Lens	14	5	4	5	+1	-4.3	19
5	Reims	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.6	19
6	Lyon	13	6	1	6	-3	-6.5	19
7	Nice	13	5	3	5	-1	+1.7	18
8	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	-4	-11.1	18
9	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
10	Montpellier	13	5	1	7	-4	-6.0	16
11	Nantes	13	5	1	7	-9	-7.5	16
12	Rennes	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.5	15
13	Strasbourg	13	3	5	5	-7	-4.2	14
14	Metz	15	4	2	9	-13	-17.2	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-10	-9.0	13
16	Le Havre	15	1	8	6	-9	-13.7	11
17	Clermont	14	2	5	7	-12	-15.9	11
18	Marseille	14	2	4	8	-7	+1.5	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.