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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Dortmund

S T S S T

2–1

Full-time

St Pauli

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

5,3

2,2

Scored

3,3

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,95 xG 0,63

75% Possession 25%

20 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · St Pauli 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+13	+9.4	14
2	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.4	14
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.5	13
4	Freiburg	6	4	0	2	+2	+4.3	12
5	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.5	11
6	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.3	11
7	Dortmund	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.0	10
8	Stuttgart	6	2	3	1	+4	+5.1	9
9	Heidenheim	6	3	0	3	+2	+1.6	9
10	Mainz	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.1	8
11	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.1	8
12	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	+1	-2.4	7
13	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.2	7
14	M'gladbach	6	2	0	4	-3	-1.1	6
15	St Pauli	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
16	Hoffenheim	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.5	4
17	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.7	2
18	Bochum	6	0	1	5	-8	-8.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	Union Berlin	3	3	0	0	+3	+2.1	9
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
5	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
7	Stuttgart	3	1	2	0	+4	+5.5	5
8	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.9	4
9	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.9	4
10	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.2	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.0	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
15	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.4	1
16	St Pauli	3	0	1	2	-5	+0.5	1
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.3	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+11	+7.4	10
2	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	-3.2	7
3	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
4	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.5	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.3	6
7	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
8	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.1	6
10	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
11	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
12	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
13	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.6	2
14	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.5	1
16	Dortmund	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.