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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Portimonense

U S T T S

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Anadia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
13	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
63	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
65	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
75	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
128	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	União Santarém	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.