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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Union Berlin

T T S S U

1–0

Full-time

St Pauli

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,07 xG 0,53

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 11. · St Pauli 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
6	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
12	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
14	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
15	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
17	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
2	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
3	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
6	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
7	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
8	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
9	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
4	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
5	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
6	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
7	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
8	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.