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Bundesliga

Referee: F Exner

Union Berlin

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 36%

24%

47%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

35%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,08 xG 1,69

33% Possession 67%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

5 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 14. · Mainz 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	18	14	3	1	+41	+34.0	45
2	Leverkusen	18	12	5	1	+20	+15.5	41
3	Ein Frankfurt	18	11	3	4	+18	+8.3	36
4	Stuttgart	18	9	5	4	+10	+11.5	32
5	RB Leipzig	18	9	4	5	+5	-4.6	31
6	Mainz	17	8	4	5	+9	-0.5	28
7	Wolfsburg	18	8	3	7	+8	-3.9	27
8	Freiburg	18	8	3	7	-9	-1.5	27
9	Werder Bremen	17	7	5	5	-1	-0.0	26
10	Dortmund	18	7	4	7	+1	+2.6	25
11	M'gladbach	18	7	3	8	-2	-6.0	24
12	Augsburg	17	5	4	8	-14	-6.5	19
13	St Pauli	18	5	2	11	-7	-4.9	17
14	Union Berlin	17	4	5	8	-9	-4.8	17
15	Hoffenheim	18	4	5	9	-12	-9.6	17
16	Heidenheim	18	4	2	12	-15	-5.6	14
17	Holstein Kiel	18	3	2	13	-20	-9.8	11
18	Bochum	18	2	4	12	-23	-14.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+24	+20.0	25
2	Leverkusen	10	7	2	1	+12	+12.1	23
3	Ein Frankfurt	9	6	2	1	+13	+9.8	20
4	Stuttgart	10	6	2	2	+11	+12.9	20
5	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+11	+6.3	20
6	Freiburg	8	6	1	1	+6	+4.1	19
7	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
8	M'gladbach	9	5	1	3	+6	+0.8	16
9	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+2	+3.0	14
10	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.4	14
11	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.5	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	+0	-0.9	11
13	Werder Bremen	8	2	4	2	-2	-0.9	10
14	Hoffenheim	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.0	10
15	Bochum	9	2	3	4	-7	-2.5	9
16	Holstein Kiel	10	3	0	7	-11	-5.3	9
17	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-8	-1.3	7
18	St Pauli	8	1	2	5	-7	-0.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	2	1	+17	+14.0	20
2	Leverkusen	8	5	3	0	+8	+3.4	18
3	Wolfsburg	9	5	1	3	+8	-2.9	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+5	-1.5	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	5	1	3	+1	+0.9	16
6	Mainz	8	4	2	2	+7	-3.5	14
7	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	-1	-7.4	14
8	St Pauli	10	4	0	6	+0	-4.9	12
9	Stuttgart	8	3	3	2	-1	-1.3	12
10	M'gladbach	9	2	2	5	-8	-6.8	8
11	Freiburg	10	2	2	6	-15	-5.6	8
12	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.2	7
13	Hoffenheim	9	1	4	4	-8	-9.6	7
14	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.3	5
15	Dortmund	9	1	2	6	-10	-3.7	5
16	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-15	-9.9	5
17	Holstein Kiel	8	0	2	6	-9	-4.6	2
18	Bochum	9	0	1	8	-16	-11.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.