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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Marseille

U S S S U

1–1

Full-time

Strasbourg

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,5

2,2

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

65%

35%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 74%

71%

76%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,92 xG 0,80

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Strasbourg 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	14	4	0	+32	+30.8	46
2	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+19	+3.1	36
3	Lille	18	8	8	2	+11	+5.7	32
4	Monaco	18	9	4	5	+9	+19.0	31
5	Nice	18	8	6	4	+11	+10.9	30
6	Lyon	18	8	5	5	+7	+5.8	29
7	Lens	18	7	6	5	+4	+7.1	27
8	Toulouse	18	7	4	7	+0	+8.2	25
9	Brest	18	8	1	9	-3	-10.4	25
10	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	+1	-5.2	23
11	Auxerre	18	6	4	8	-4	-10.2	22
12	Angers	18	6	4	8	-6	-3.2	22
13	Reims	18	5	6	7	-2	-7.1	21
14	Rennes	18	5	2	11	-3	+1.1	17
15	Nantes	18	3	8	7	-7	-8.1	17
16	St Etienne	18	5	2	11	-21	-18.5	17
17	Le Havre	18	4	1	13	-23	-14.4	13
18	Montpellier	18	3	3	12	-25	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+19	+17.3	25
2	Brest	9	6	1	2	+9	+1.0	19
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
4	Auxerre	9	5	3	1	+7	-0.3	18
5	Lille	9	5	3	1	+5	-0.3	18
6	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+5	+4.0	17
7	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	+9	+6.0	16
9	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.1	16
10	Strasbourg	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.6	15
11	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	+5.4	14
12	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.3	12
13	Montpellier	10	3	3	4	-8	-3.4	12
14	Lens	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.9	11
15	Reims	10	2	4	4	-4	-4.2	10
16	Angers	9	3	1	5	-5	-4.6	10
17	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
18	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-15	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	9	8	0	1	+17	+0.8	24
2	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+13	+13.5	21
3	Lens	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.2	16
4	Lille	9	3	5	1	+6	+6.0	14
5	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Nice	10	3	3	4	-1	+2.9	12
8	Angers	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
9	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
10	Toulouse	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
11	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-4	-5.9	8
12	Nantes	10	1	5	4	-6	-8.1	8
13	Le Havre	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.8	7
14	Brest	9	2	0	7	-12	-11.4	6
15	Auxerre	9	1	1	7	-11	-9.9	4
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	9	0	1	8	-23	-19.6	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.